THIS YEAR is likely to be the fifth-warmest on record, according to preliminary data released yesterday by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO). It also said the decade will turn out to be even warmer than the 1990s.
WMO director general Michel Jarraud told a press briefing at the UN climate change conference in Copenhagen that these were “pretty solid conclusions”, derived from an analysis by meteorologists of weather data from all over the world.
Covering the period January to October, 2009 looked like being the fifth-warmest year since scientists started keeping instrumental climate records in 1850, and it was unlikely that this preliminary conclusion would change when all the data were in.
Mr Jarraud said the decade 2000-2009 was “very likely to be the warmest on record, warmer than the 1990s which, in turn, were warmer that the 1980s”. This upward curve confirmed the trend of global warming over the past three decades. He said large parts of Africa and southern Asia were warmer in 2009, and only North America cooler than the global average, which is now 0.44 degrees Celsius higher than it was during the meteorologists’ “reference period” of 1961-1990.
China had its third-warmest year on record in 2009, causing “the worst drought for decades”, Mr Jarraud said. There had also been “extreme heatwaves” in India and Australia, where 2009 was also the third-warmest year since records began. The year had also witnessed “massive food shortages” in Kenya as a direct result of prolonged drought. In some parts of the world, notably the Philippines, there had been more tropical cyclones, while other tropical regions had fewer cyclones.
Mr Jarraud noted that a new El Niño phenomenon was in the early stage of development in the Pacific, and this would bring higher ocean temperatures and probably more cyclones. More unpredictable was what impact any volcanic eruptions would have. He described the decline of summer sea ice in the Arctic as “very much pronounced”, with the third-lowest coverage on record in 2009, after even lower levels in 2008 and 2007. This is attributed to a rise in the temperature of the ocean in the Arctic region.
Asked about whether some of the data had come from the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit, Mr Jarraud said that it had but the WMO was not relying exclusively on its figures, but also other sets of data that showed “almost identical results”.
He noted that the British Met Office had called on meteorological organisations worldwide to release all their data in the interests of transparency. But the WMO director-general said: “We are in a warming trend. We have no doubt about that.”
Bangladesh, Burma (Myanmar) and Honduras have been named as the countries most affected by extreme weather events in the period 1990-2008, according to the Global Climate Risk Index 2010, compiled by Germanwatch from data held by Munich Re.
The index analysed the impacts of weather-related loss events – mainly storms, floods and heatwaves – for all 1992 countries represented at the climate conference in Copenhagen. It found Burma, Yemen and Vietnam were hardest hit in 2008.
Sven Harmeling, of Germanwatch, said extreme weather was an increasing threat to lives and economic values, and its impacts would likely to grow in the future due to climate change. “Our analyses show that in particular poor countries are severely affected.”
Christoph Bals, political director at Germanwatch, said it was the duty of developed countries to implement an adaptation framework for vulnerable developing nations, and this should include an internationally financed insurance mechanism for those most at risk.
Saleemul Huq, a Bangladeshi adaptation expert from the Institute for Environment and Development, said what was “remarkable is that many of these countries are already taking action now to prepare for the effects of climate change – they are not just sitting back and waiting”.
The Global Climate Risk Index 2010 is available at www.germanwatch.org/cri