These are the make-or-break weeks in the life of this Dail. As things now stand it can go either way. There is no inevitability that the die is already cast and that it is only a matter of weeks or months before we face an election. Nor, however, is there any guarantee that the Government will survive.

The simple truth is that no one knows what is going to happen. The only thing we can expect with any certainty is the unexpected. And with the tribunals now in full flight, one efficient, the other increasingly bizarre, there will be no shortage of surprises.

Drapier likes to take the long view but even he is bemused by the rapidity of unfolding events. Two months ago this Government was a secure, indeed cosy, little arrangement. Bertie Ahern was walking on water, the skies were clear, the Opposition fitful, the media generally approving.

The Independents were throwing the odd shape, but in reality they were the most loyal supporters any government could ask for, while the PDs were solidly ensconced. That, as Drapier said then, is always when things are at their most dangerous. Drapier remembers, not six weeks ago, gently warning the Government not to take too much for granted, and he was right.

The catalogue of disasters since then is frightening. Was Padraig Flynn simply behaving in character during his crass Late Late performance? Was he badly advised, or was it, as his trio of lady supporters, Ms Terry Prone, Ms Maire Geoghegan-Quinn and his resolute daughter, Beverly Cooper-Flynn, tell us, that we all misunderstand the man and it is we who are getting it wrong?

The answer doesn't really matter. The public has no doubt as to what it thinks of Padraig Flynn.

Tom Gilmartin has no doubts either, and if the Fine Gael motion tabled for next week's Private Members' Time goes ahead then Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney will have to make up their minds, too.

An experienced observer of Padraig Flynn remarked this week that Flynn will not give in easily. He may be hurt, but his self-belief is such that he is impervious to public opinion, and when it comes to rough-house politics he will give as good as he gets. And he won't be all that fussy about the weapons he chooses to use, a prospect which can't be good news for Bertie Ahern or for ail FF in Mayo.

Then we have the tribunals. The picture of the Haughey financial arrangements is more lurid and shocking than anything we might have expected. And we are still only at the beginning.

Where it will all lead and who it will embrace in its sleazy taint are questions hanging over the survivors of the class of '89, and, by extension, fairly or unfairly, over their successors in Fianna Fail.

Drapier does not think an election at this moment would necessarily solve anything. In his view it would be better to let the tribunals get on with their work in an orderly way, get the full facts, listen to what Judges Flood and Moriarty have to say and then let the people judge.

Life, however, is not always orderly, and the election when it comes is likely to come by accident and before the tribunals have completed their work. And if that happens it is likely to have important consequences for Fianna Fail. If there are still major unresolved questions hanging over Fianna Fail in an election caused by a tribunal-related issue, then no other party will be able to campaign on the basis that it could, if need be, form a government with Fianna Fail after the election.

It will be back to the old days of Fianna Fail versus the rest; days, ironically, dear to Padraig Flynn, but in such a situation few would put much money on an overall majority. The reality at the moment is that Fianna Fail's survival in Government depends on one factor only, the willingness of the PDs to continue their support. The four Independents are secure, entirely so, and have no interest in or intention of precipitating any election. That is a fact.

The PDs are different. Mary Harney has a very difficult part to play over the coming months. In Drapier's view she has handled matters very well to date but, sadly for her, the hard times are only starting.

It's easy to forget that one of the great attractions of the PDs in its heady early days was that it saw itself, and was seen by many, as a party of principle. That is a reality of which Mary Harney is very well aware. It does her and her party credit that she has this type of support, but it also reduces her comfort zone as she faces hard, pragmatic choices upon which depend the very survival of her party.

Even if there were no tribunals, the next few months were going to be horrific ones for the PDs. Its local election structure is eroding and it faces these local elections with every certainty of losses. It has not, as yet, a credible European candidate, and, as we all know, bad election results will generate a spate of analysis, media comment and recrimination.

Indeed, even before now, the very raison d'etre for the PDs was likely to be the staple of the summer media diet. And even if the PDs put their heads down and battle on the party is likely to enter the next election in a demoralised and less than confident state.

That prospect is still there. Looking at it, the gamblers in the PDs might now argue that to go to the country sooner rather than later on an ethics issue would at least give a sense of purpose to their campaign, and salvage the existing four seats, and maybe even make a gain or two.

It's high-risk. Campaigns, once started, take on their own life. Issues that are prominent at the start of a campaign can soon lose their impact. As yet no "smoking gun" sufficient to justify withdrawal from the Government has appeared on the scene.

The PDs have been, and are, good for Irish politics. Behind the preachiness there is a core of principle and a deep seam of decency. But whether the party can, indeed wants to, continue in existence as little more than a corrective influence on an elder relation is a question many members may now ask. Whether it can make a more effective contribution by going the way of Democratic Left and merging with a larger entity may also soon appear on the agenda.

Drapier will make only one prediction. If and when the PDs pull out of this Government it will be because they believe they can take no more and because there is a fundamental question of principle at stake. As Drapier said at the outset, there is no inevitability that such will happen. This unhappy marriage may yet limp on right to the bitter end.