THERE will be a few sore heads this morning as Tory MPs trundle along to Committee Room 14 to cast their votes in the leadership election.

All five aspiring leaders threw parties last night. Beer, cheap wine and crisps at Kenneth Clarke's bash; Pimms, strawberries and cream for the Redwoodites; canapes and champagne at Jonathan Aitken's Lord North Street home as Mr Michael Howard held court. Mr Peter Lilley offered wine, upmarket sandwiches and treats on sticks at the St Stephen's Club while Mr William Hague staged the "classiest" do of the night at that bastion of Toryism, the Carlton Club.

Some loyalists doubtless put in an appearance only on behalf of their declared candidate. Others will have ventured into enemy camps to gather intelligence and observe the form. Many will have journeyed simply in the cause of a good party - toasting Mr Hague with Yorkshire's finest bitter, Mr Howard with the Laurent-Perrier - while pledging themselves to each of the others along the way.

This, after all, is the Conservative Parliamentary Party. John Major, remember, received more congratulatory letters than he won votes in the 1995 contest. As one campaign manager put it last night: "They're often described as the most sophisticated electorate in the world. You might also add that some are lying bastards.

Soon after 5 p.m. two or three of the candidates will know just how comprehensively they have been lied to. Last night the Redwood camp claimed 15 declared supporters, with another 30 in the shadows. Mr Howard maintains he is set for victory. Mr Lilley's camp says the same.

Yet if the Westminster wisdom is correct, two of these three will be effectively out of the race before the day is done. Mr Hague's supporters refuse to discount the possibility of their man topping the poll in the first ballot. However, the expectation is that he will come second behind Mr Clarke, with Messrs Howard and Lilley battling for third place, and Mr Redwood taking the wooden spoon. And then the contest begins in earnest, as the Tory right attempts to unite behind the candidate most likely to defeat the pro European exchancellor.

The Stop Ken Clarke campaign is set, it seems, to move into top gear, with Baroness Thatcher reportedly ready to endorse whichever of the three rightwingers emerges today as standard bearer. The Lady has conspicuously withheld her endorsement from Mr Hague, who is not apparently considered truly "one of us". And the right hopes the young pretender will be squeezed as the true believers marshal behind Mr Howard or Mr Lilley for the final showdown with Mr Clarke.

However, that presupposes the defeated candidates can direct their supporters en bloc. And this seems doubtful. The Hague camp is particularly confident that some of Mr Lilley's supporters would find Mr Howard unacceptable, and come its way. Mr Lilley is arguably the right's best chance of winning the day. But he is attended by the same doubts as Mr Howard. No matter how strongly inclined some Tories are, they fear neither is publicly electable.

If Mr Hague comes a good second today, he will have the benefit of momentum having defeated three more senior colleagues. And his hope would be to gather more support as the party quails before the choice of an unacceptable rightwinger and the man the right blames for tying Mr Major to the wrong policy on the Single European Currency.

The Hague camp is also promoting the idea that Mr Clarke will today "hit his ceiling" and that his supporters - knowing they can't win, and faced with Lady Thatcher's anointed - will begin to defect to it. Thus Mr Hague could emerge as the "establishment" candidate with the Thatcherite running (still, after all these years) as the "outsider".

However, there are nearly as many permutations as there are electors (just 164). One recurring rumour is that Mr Howard might eventually settle for becoming Mr Clarke's deputy - offering a sort of "dream ticket" combining left and right.

You might think the former home secretary would as soon sup with the devil. But then, he thought he had stitched up precisely such a deal with Mr Hague, and might not relish serving under the man he thought to make his deputy. Moreover, some in the Redwood camp claim they would consider backing Mr Clarke - against Mr Hague - because the former Welsh secretary too much resembles Mr Major, lacks weight, and would preclude any other choice for at least 10 years.

"If I were Ken Clarke, I certainly would not be pessimistic," said one rightwinger last night. He would rationalise a final round vote for Clarke on the basis of his recognised skills, his popularity in the country, and the certainty that - in Opposition - he could not be more pro European than the increasingly sceptical Mr Blair.

However, even as these words flow, they seem too pat, too logical, too plain intelligent for a party riven with ideological division.

Mr Redwood insists he will end the civil war by forever precluding membership of the single currency. The Daily Telegraph derides Mr Clarke as New Labour's choice for five more years of bloody battle. And even among his friends there is the fear that Mr Clarke would be all too ready to turn his pugnacious skills on his own side.

Mr Hague may not like the comparison with Mr Major. But he'll be hoping the Conservative Party takes a shine to him (as it did to John Major before him) if for no other reason than that he is not somebody else.