Tomorrow the electorate of the world's largest country will go to the polls. It will elect Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin to be President of the Russian Federation. No other democratically elected head of state will have stronger powers. The constitution, drafted at the behest of Boris Yeltsin, allows the head of state to rule virtually by decree.
Russia's dwindling electorate stands at 108 million. More than 60 per cent are expected to cast their ballots at more than 90,000 polling stations. For the election to be valid, a poll of more than 50 per cent is necessary. For Mr Putin to be elected tomorrow, he will need more than 50 per cent of the votes cast. The final opinion polls indicate he will.
Mr Putin promises law and order to an electorate exhausted by the chaos of the Yeltsin regime. But he does so in an extremely questionable way.
He says that law and order will apply to those who do not break the law. To those who do break the law, order alone will apply. Friends such as Pavel Borodin, who must be regarded as innocent until proven guilty, will be exceptions. Mr Borodin, a former administrator of the Kremlin's real estate, brought Mr Putin from relative obscurity in St Petersburg to a place near the centre of power in Moscow. He is also the subject of an international arrest warrant issued by the prosecutor general in Switzerland regarding allegations of massive corruption.
Mr Putin's opponents in tomorrow's poll stand little or no chance of election. The results, as in the old days, are known in advance. By the time the polls close in Moscow and the results arrive from the far eastern cities of Vladivostok and Nakhodka it should be clear that Mr Putin has won. It will also be clear that the Communist candidate, Gennady Zyuganov, will finish second and the liberal candidate Grigory Yavlinsky wlll end third. The major question, however, regarding these elections concerns the future lives of ordinary Russian citizens. Future President Putin promises order. But the forces of order in Russia are extremely disorderly and open to bribery.
The other day, as I walked down Maly Kosikhinsky Lane in central Moscow, a member of the Interior Ministry forces approached me. I felt my jacket to remind myself that I had my documents, but it did not really matter. "Fifty roubles," the man said, and I handed over my 50 roubles. He, after all, carried a 9 mm Makarov pistol and I did not.
The idea of handing over responsibility for Russia's future security to the security forces is in principle a good one. In practice it could give carte blanche to police and Interior Ministry forces to extort as much money as possible from the citizenry.
In theory there are alternatives to Mr Putin and his policies. The leader of the Communist Party of the Russian Federation, Mr Zyuganov, has put forward a programme which includes the nationalisation of the factories which produce vodka and tobacco and enterprises connected to national security.
Mr Yavlinsky, a democrat and a liberal, is regarded by some as "too honest" and "too arrogant" to be worthy of a place at the top of the pyramid of post-Soviet power. The other eight candidates will trail in behind Mr Putin, Mr Zyuganov and Mr Yavlinsky. Vladimir Zhirinovsky will finish fourth.
At this stage Mr Putin has the support of the Yeltsin establishment, the Young Communist League (Komsomol) and the large majority of the Russian people.
The British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, did not even wait for Mr Putin to be elected before paying tribute and there are indications the United States is ready to do business.
Secretary of State Ms Madeleine Albright, for example, has cited China and Serbia as the main offenders against human rights. Russia's record in Chechyna was conveniently omitted. Other governments are expected to enter dialogue with Mr Putin, but not until he receives a democratic mandate.
As for the other candidates, Mr Zyuganov may represent the end of the formal communist challenge to power although Mr Putin, of course, was a devoted member of the Communist Party in his time. It is to be hoped Mr Yavlinskys's modern European political outlook will not be liquidated upon Mr Putins's accession to power and that at least a semblance of democratic opposition will remain.