THE Progressive Democrats and Fianna Fail are being forced to do in two months what the Rainbow has done in 2 1/2 years give and take on policy. And the pressures are immense as a common platform is cobbled together in the white heat of an election campaign.
It wasn't supposed to be like this Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats had planned to run separate campaigns on their individual policies; to appeal to the widest possible audience. But Government tactics and media pressure destroyed that strategy, forcing both parties towards the crowded middle ground.
The result is unique in Irish politics: a competition between two groups of coalition parties rather than between a range of individual parties. In the process, distinctive policies have been gutted in favour of middleground consensus.
The Rainbow Coalition opened its campaign by listing its economic and legislative successes in Government and offering more of the same, paying special attention to tax concessions for middle and lower income groups. At the same time, Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats promised to make the difference on unemployment, crime and taxation, and slanted benefits towards the higher paid.
BUT the strategy of Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats running separate campaigns began to unravel when the Rainbow parties campaigned on a "them or us" platform. Policy differences between the opposition parties were played up their broken record in government was exploited as the Rainbow Coalition contrasted its history of stable, inclusive government with uncertainty and potential division.
After a week of electioneering, the gap between Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats began to yawn as the smaller party's proposals to abolish employees' PRSI cut public service numbers by 25.000 and deal with single mothers began to cause public disquiet.
It was time for some straight talking. Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney got together last Sunday in Dublin. And the Fianna Fail approach prevailed. The Progressive Democrats might be Fianna Fail's first choice as a coalition partner, but their policies were making life intolerable on the doorsteps, and they might yet frighten the horses. It was done in the nicest possible way. But the message was simple: power always comes with a price tag.
On Monday, it was a strangely muted Mary Harney who committed herself to "partnership and consultation in the public service". There was broad agreement with Fianna Fail. The promise to reduce the number of public servants by 25,000 in order to pay for tax cuts was taking a back seat.
Just how far back became obvious later in the day when Bertie Ahern declared Fianna Fail to be "the champion of the public service". He spoke of "controlling the growth of the service" rather than about cutting numbers.
Large scale privatisation also disappeared as an issue. Last November Ms Harney promised a £2.000 million privatisation programme involving the ESB, Aer Rianta, Aer Lingus, Telecom Eireann and the TSB, ACC and ICC banks, which would cut the national debt and reduce taxes.
LAST Monday Mr Ahern spoke of "broadening the shareholding in semiState companies". But he also insisted: "Fianna Fail will not engage in a wholesale dismantling or disposal of state companies."
And on Tuesday he laid down the ground rules for any future coalition involving Fianna Fail. As Taoiseach he would continue those "broadly popular policies that have been underpinned by social partnership and successive governments".
It was "back to the future" as Mr Ahern pledged to uphold social partnership, improve the level of public services, maintain the integrity of the system of social protection and develop the State sector.
But it wasn't all one way traffic. The Progressive Democrats secured movement on an initial 20 per cent rate of tax. And Fianna Fail joined with them in opposing state funding for political parties.
As the opposition parties sorted out their difficulties, the Government parties were also under pressure. Fine Gael's offer to reduce the top rate of tax from 48 to 45 per cent was postponed for two years following consultations with Labour and Democratic Left.
Dick Spring and Proinsias De Rossa were underwhelmed by Nora Owen's proposal to introduce a 48 hour detention system for suspects. There was a slight hiccup over abortion legislation. And the North provided some scope for disagreement when Mr Spring goofed and described a vote for Sinn Fein as a vote for peace.
But the main area of sensitivity was economic affairs. In spite of two years in Government, the parties failed to agree on spending limits for the next few years. They committed themselves to maintaining a current budget surplus and to working towards a capital surplus. But the elasticity inherent in revenue buoyancy and economic growth was too attractive to pass up. It was regarded as a nest egg, to be fought over if the Rainbow parties returned to government.
As of now, the alternative coalition governments are so tightly grouped around the political centre, in terms of policies, that it would be hard to slip a knife between them. Given the nature of politics and the likelihood of a hung Dail, however, you can expect some serious risk taking in the coming week.
