Opposition prepares for election but Government is in no hurry

The Minister for Justice, John O'Donoghue, had planned a quiet drink to relax after last week's Cabinet meeting in Ballaghaderreen. The Cahirciveen politician tucked himself away in a quiet public house in Sligo.

However, the Minister must have felt as if he had made a sudden and swift return to Leinster House when a collection of Labour Party TDs and senators entered the premises, also in search of refreshments.

The entire Labour Parliamentary Party had gone to Sligo to determine the party's strategy for the forthcoming Dail term and to meet local community groups to discuss health, education and local development in the north-west.

Indeed, it has been difficult over the last week around the country not to come across some of those who ply their trade in Dail Eireann. The Government went to Ballaghaderreen for the first Cabinet meeting of the new year, and today meets in Cork. A similar enthusiasm for regionalisation drove the Fine Gael front-bench to Tullamore, while Labour parliamentarians were in Sligo town.

Although the Labour leader, Ruairi Quinn, said his members were being put on "war footing" for the possibility of a general election in the year ahead, none of the parties expects this to be an election year. John Bruton has already openly admitted this.

The minority Fianna Fail-Progressive Democrat Government can remain in office until June 2002 at the latest. All the indications from the Taoiseach and his advisers is that they are intent on going the distance, regardless of the favourable poll ratings in the latest Irish Times/MRBI survey.

However, the eagerness with which both Government and Opposition have been out and about in the regions is further evidence that the process of gearing up for the next electoral contest is well and truly under way.

This reality may also convince Mr Ahern that the opportunity offered with the resignation of David Andrews as Minister for Foreign Affairs should be seized to introduce a few new faces at Cabinet and junior ministerial levels.

It is against this background that the Taoiseach will bring his Cabinet changes to The Dail, which reconvenes this week after the Christmas recess. The Opposition is in the unenviable position of having to bat against an administration which has enjoyed the fruits of a strong economy while also basking in the glow of a peace process that continues to move in the right direction.

But while the latest opinion poll indicates that Fine Gael and Labour are not glittering in the electorate's eyes, all is not lost for John Bruton and Ruairi Quinn.

The last Dail session saw the Government in almost permanent defensive mode. It started in early autumn with the Mary Harney-Charlie McCreevy South-of-France holiday controversy and ended in December with the Minister for Finance's Budget debacle.

In between, there was a nurses' strike, Charlie Haughey's fondness for expensive shirts and the Ellis affair. So it is little wonder that over the months ahead the Government will be keen to put some distance between itself and these events.

The forthcoming Finance Bill will provide an opportunity for Charlie McCreevy to attempt to do what he so spectacularly failed to do with his recent Budget - take credit as the Minister for Finance responsible for the biggest tax-and-spend Budget in the history of the State.

Aside from the Finance Bill, the Government's legislative programme in the new Dail session leaves room for further trouble. The Planning and Development Bill, with its proposal for social housing, will test the mettle of Environment Minister Noel Dempsey. And there may be other difficulties ahead with the minimum wage legislation and new licensing laws.

Indeed, the Labour whip, Emmet Stagg, was probably correct when he predicted that the forthcoming Dail term would be dominated by events outside Leinster House.

Over the months ahead, attention is likely to focus on the new partnership agreement and on whatever further revelations emerge from the Flood and Moriarty tribunals. Mr Stagg speculated that next month's evidence at the Flood tribunal from the London-based builder Tom Gilmartin "may cause problems for Bertie Ahern".

So with all this on the agenda as the Dail reconvenes tomorrow, John O'Donoghue's interrupted drink in Sligo may be the quietest moment enjoyed by any Cabinet member for some time to come.