As the Fine Gael Parliamentary Party gathers in the Glenview Hotel in Wicklow today for a two-day meeting, most of its members know that no master plan of their own will propel them back into government. Barring the most unexpected accident, they are in opposition for the long haul.
A wide spectrum of the party also accepts that Bertie Ahern, for 15 months the leader of the first minority Coalition Government in history, is virtually untouchable. The economy is booming. The overwhelming majority of voters want to see the Northern peace process succeeding.
"We are down to eating the crumbs off the tribunals' tables between now and Christmas" was how one middle-ranking TD summed up the party's prospects. "There is no Starr in the Irish judiciary," echoed another wistfully.
John Bruton has called the 74 strong parliamentary party together to identify priorities for the coming Dail session and, more importantly, to devise a new agenda for the second-biggest party in the current climate of consensus. For all kinds of reasons that will not be easy in present circumstances.
Yet, for the first time in many years, Fine Gael believes it is in good shape to undertake the task. For one thing, it is at ease with itself. It sees it as an undoubted advantage, compared to the Cosgrave and FitzGerald periods, to have passed over into opposition with a leader who is a former Taoiseach. There is unanimity among members that there is no threat to John Bruton's position. He will lead Fine Gael into the next election.
There are other positives which members cite to indicate that the party is in reasonable shape. In all the circumstances, it had a good general election last year where, they say, the Labour Party lost them office. Their ex-ministers and exministers of State were not as traumatised leaving government and they got down to brass tacks without delay.
And the party acquired a batch of younger members - David Stanton in Cork East, Brian Hayes in Dublin South West, Deirdre Clune in Cork South Central, John Perry in Sligo-Leitrim and Denis Naughten in Longford-Roscommon - to take the stale look off the parliamentary party.
Fine Gael also looks forward, with considerable confidence, to Simon Coveney winning the Cork South Central by-election and plans to move the writ in the Dail, on its resumption next week, for a pre-Hallowe'en poll.
For all the supposed positives, very few members look to the future through rose-tinted spectacles. The opinion polls suggest, and many members agree, that the party is unlikely to form the next government. It will do well to win 60 seats in the next general election.
Sources are convinced Bertie Ahern is planning for an overall majority for Fianna Fail next time. And, failing that, Fine Gael knows it would be dependent on very clearcut Dail arithmetic to form a coalition with Labour under Ruairi Quinn.
There are even mixed views in Fine Gael about the proposed Labour-Democratic Left merger, some members fearing that the sum of the whole may be less than the two component parts.
Against this background, the leader, John Bruton, is attempting to carve a niche for the party in post-Civil War consensus Ireland. He told colleagues recently that it was his desire "to marry the economically smart with the socially just". It is his stated ambition to make Fine Gael the biggest party in the Oireachtas in the new millennium.
The threads of Fine Gael thinking were signalled in a little-reported speech by Mr Bruton to the National Council of Chambers of Commerce of Ireland last Thursday. To sustain economic success, he said, Fine Gael had six policy priorities on its agenda for the next five years: to constantly retrain the workforce; to overcome traffic problems; to deal with the housing crisis; to care for families and children; to give priority to early childhood education to combat poverty; and to exempt the low-paid from tax. It will be interesting to see which of these policies the party accepts this week.
But economically smart and socially just policies alone will not give Fine Gael the rocket boost it requires to change its flagging fortunes. There are other equally serious problems to be addressed.
The leader's inner circle is too small. It comprises Nora Owen, Michael Noonan, sometimes the chairman of the parliamentary party, Phil Hogan, and party officials Roy Dooney, Niall O'Muilleoir and Jim Miley. Some would say that their combined efforts have done little to protect John Bruton from the worst excesses in himself.
They were seen to have little influence over him in three outbursts in the last year: the attack on Prof Mary McAleese for Sinn Fein sympathies during the presidential campaign; the demand for the former minister, Ray Burke, to resign on the insensitive day of his brother's funeral; and, most recently, the challenges to Gerry Adams on the "war" being over on the week of the Clinton visit. These statements may have been based on sound logic, but they were bad politics.
Nothwithstanding the great efforts of some, the party also seems to suffer from a shortage of outstanding backroom talent. Fine Gael can be slower than Labour or Democratic Left to respond to important Government developments. This was particularly evident in the negotiations and debates on the wording of the Amsterdam referendum and the recent emergency legislation.
And, finally, although the party has a well-staffed press office, the party's media operation is the least effective in the Dail. The combined effect of these shortcomings will hamper efforts to shape a new agenda for the party.
