Casting for Oscar bait

So where are we in awards season? Four days before the Oscar nominations are announced, a few trends have begun to coalesce.

Having won best musical or comedy at the Golden Globes and picked up the most number of nominations at the Baftas, The Artistdoes remain a fairly clear favourite for best picture at the only awards that really matter. It has been felt that, having underperformed at the US box office, the delightful silent film might begin to haemorrhage support. This doesn't appear to be the case.

Meryl Streep, winner at the Globes, remains strong favourite for best actress Oscar. Astonishingly, she hasn't won an Academy Award for 29 years and her turn as Mrs Thatcher is good enough to distract from The Iron Lady'squestionable quality.

One interesting question is kicked up by the Bafta nominations. Under normal circumstances, a film that received raves on both sides of the Atlantic, made decent money and picked up 11 Bafta nominations would be an absolute lock for a best picture Oscar nomination. After all, about 10 per cent of the Oscar electorate are also members of the British Academy. But Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy(for it is that of which we speak) has made no impact whatsoever on awards season. The film did not secure a single Golden Globe nomination. There is, thus, every chance it will go entirely unrewarded on Tuesday.

What gives? Answers on a postcard.