Are the mould breaking PDs a lost cause?

As the Progressive Democrats emerge from yet another annus horribilis, the question on many lips is "How much longer can they survive?".

In spite of protestations from their parliamentary party - numbering eight - that they can ride the wild stallion of public opinion, the party's destiny seems set to mirror that of most other small parties - merge or perish.

It was an aberrant twist of politics towards the end of 1998 - the Cork South Central by-election in October caused by the death of Hugh Coveney - that pitilessly exposed the Progressive Democrats' vulnerability.

Their bleak accomplishment in securing just 971 votes meant they ended up trailing behind Sinn Fein, a humiliating comment by the electorate. The party had won just 2.26 per cent of the vote, almost half the support registered in the 1997 general election. The Cork result was seen as a vital indicator of what lies ahead for a party founded in 1987 as the "mould-breakers" of Irish politics.

A long-time party figure, Kay McGuinness from Limerick, went so far as to suggest the benefits of Pat Cox coming back to lead the party.

Others complained that their leader and Tanaiste, Mary Harney, simply did not have enough time to devote to her party because of the exigencies of her huge ministerial portfolio. What use were her achievements to the Progressive Democrats if they failed to translate into voting currency?

There was also deep dissatisfaction that trenchant views of the party's commission on renewal were not being put into effect. In what was effectively a post-mortem report on the 1997 general election, produced last summer, the commission stated that PDs simply must present themselves as a separate entity, independent of Fianna Fail in government.

The Fianna Fail/PD twin-track approach to survival in government did not even waver when it emerged earlier this month that the Taoiseach's brother-in-law had reduced Charlie Haughey's tax bill to zero.

If the drastic outcome of the Cork byelection did any favour to the Progressive Democrats, it may have served to shake them from the lethargy that possessed them since June 1997 when they lost over half their Dail seats in a drop from 10 to four.

So, in the immediate aftermath of the byelection debacle, and firmly under the spyglass, their leader delivered a rallying cry. In November, their National Council met in a Dublin hotel. If they were melancholy, Ms Harney was defiant. There would be no mergers, no liquidation, no going silently into the dark night, she said. Nay, they would rage, rage against the dying of the light.

"If the party goes down, I go with it," she declared.

The immediate effect on the party's nerves was, apparently, calming. But there was much to be done in terms of revamping a demoralised, deflated organisation which had lost some of its key personnel in the previous months.

Their national organiser/general secretary, Garvan McGinley, had left in September to devote time to a new family business. Press officer Sarah Morris had left to join Tesco. Administrator Maureen Allen had quit after 11 years. Kirstin Quinn, who worked for the party in Government Information Services, had taken a job in the ESB. By October, they had just one employee on the party payroll.

Stung by the savage criticism within and outside the party, the leadership proceeded with speed to appoint Mr McGinley's successor. The appointment of John Higgins, brother of the Fine Gael TD for Mayo, Jim Higgins, came as quite a surprise.

His political grounding was in Fine Gael but cynics remarked that his experience with the Saving the West Campaign would prove invaluable in resuscitating the PDs. A former chief executive of the Western Development Commission, he immediately set about reoiling the party machine in preparation for next June's crucial local elections.

A new administrator was also chosen and the vacant role of press officer is due to be filled early in the new year.

Morale in the ranks was further boosted with the December Budget when two of Ms Harney's key ambitions were announced by the Minister for Finance, Mr McCreevy. Her supporters were quick to point out that the introduction of tax credits and the exemption from tax of the first £100 in earnings were among her aspirations.

But, notwithstanding these developments and her own high ratings, Ms Harney still presides over a national political party that commands only 2 per cent of popular support.

The power of the party's Dail performance will be considerably weakened by the retirement of the party's vastly experienced founding father, Des O'Malley, at the next general election. There is no certainty that Bobby Molloy will seek re-election, though the leadership prays he will.

In a bid to maximise her own chances of re-election, Ms Harney will leave Dublin South West for the newly-created constituency of Dublin Mid-West which encompasses her childhood territory around Newcastle and Rathcoole.

Right now, it's time to turn to the local elections. The party regards them as the litmus test of its ability to survive long term. According to the leadership, they will seek to attract vibrant, ambitious, presentable candidates. A laudable idea, but one must pose the question: will vibrant, ambitious and presentable candidates be attracted to a party that can only pull about 2 per cent of the vote?

Supporters of the party say this is not the end - just a dip on the roller-coaster the party has been on since its inception. In 1987, they won 14 Dail seats; that plunged to six in 1989 only to rise to 10 in 1992 and fall to four in 1997.

But, whichever way one sees it, as they emerge from 1998, the PDs need to turn in a strong performance in the June European elections. A collapse there would surely turn the mould-breakers into lost causes.