Whatever the outcome of the G20 talks, it was Sarkozy who made it happen

The French leader was the first one to advocate a summit to 'moralise capitalism', writes Lara Marlowein Paris

THE GROUP of 20 (G20) summit that will convene in Washington tomorrow and Saturday would not have happened without French president Nicolas Sarkozy.

It was Sarkozy who first advocated a high-level meeting to address the world financial crisis, in a speech at the United Nations on September 23rd.

Two days later, in a landmark address in Toulon, the French leader elaborated on his determination to "moralise capitalism".

As European governments scrambled to save failing banks, Sarkozy convened the first summit of the heads of state and government of the 15-member Eurogroup at the Élysée Palace on October 12th.

Their plan, to shore up banks and guarantee interbank lending, but also to regulate ratings agencies, hedge funds and tax havens and reform accounting procedures, was endorsed by the European Council four days later.

The same document was the foundation of the five-point plan that Sarkozy will defend on Europe's behalf in Washington.

Éloi Laurent, an economist at French economic think tank OFCE, says the French leader's current role as president of the European Council enabled him to convene the series of unprecedented summits. "Sarkozy has been able to achieve these things as acting president of the world's first economic power, not as president of France. He was the right man in the right place at the right time," says Laurent.

But British prime minister Gordon Brown is challenging Sarkozy for the role of world's leading economic reformer. "It was extraordinary to have the first meeting of heads of state and government of the Eurogroup under the auspices of Britain [which is not even a member of the group] at the Élysée Palace."

Though Brown did not remain for the entire session, his plan to recapitalise British banks served as a template for other European countries.

A European diplomat who attended the Élysée summit praised Sarkozy's "quick, decisive, persuasive" handling of the meeting, and said that "if medals were being given out, right now Sarkozy would win gold, Gordon Brown silver".

For Laurent, the jury is still out. Europe has rescued its banks, but has not begun to address the wider economic crisis, which begs for a series of national economic stimulus packages. Germany's €13 billion plan was an inadequate measure that was dwarfed by China's $586 billion (€470 billion) effort. And though Sarkozy calls for a global recovery plan, he has not mustered the slightest stimulus package for France.

Brown is scheduled to announce a British plan soon. If he shows ingenuity like that applied to British banks, he could steal the limelight from Sarkozy.

"We'll continue to see Nicolas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown jostling for European leadership," says a diplomat in Paris. "The idea that Nicolas Sarkozy is going to move to the back row after the EU presidency is wrong."

Brown's upcoming leadership of the G20 will provide him with a forum.

There may be a tug-of-war between Brown and Sarkozy over the venue for the following summit, which Sarkozy wants to take place 100 days from now: London or Paris?

The lack of cohesion within Europe, despite the series of unanimous declarations, also weakens Sarkozy's position in Washington. "Beneath a degree of convergence, the orientation remains different," says a diplomat. "The city of London will rebuild itself with a more free market orientation than has ever existed in France."

Germany has resisted Sarkozy's attempt to continue as president of the Eurogroup until 2010, and Berlin is so allergic to French demands for a European economic government that the German finance minister vetoed an innocuous phrase about a common solution at the November 7th summit.

"The German chancellor and her finance minister must rapidly learn the lessons of these last weeks," former German foreign minister Joschka Fischer wrote in Le Figaro newspaper this week. "The EU needs an economic government to face the prolonged crisis before us."

"[Angela] Merkel missed the boat. She's lost all claim to economic leadership in Europe," comments Laurent.

Sarkozy's call for a second international summit 100 days from now makes clear that he does not expect definitive results from this one.

If there is a winner in Washington, it may well be the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

"The IMF is likely to see its funds multiplied and its regulatory powers increased, to something approximating the original idea when it was founded," says Laurent.

The fund was the first international body to predict the gravity of the present crisis, announcing a "global slowdown" last spring, when the European Central Bank and Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development were still optimistic.

"The IMF could be rewarded for its clairvoyance, and given the means to help the multitude of little countries that are knocking at its door.

"Add to that the fact that the developed countries are divided, and a stronger role for the IMF appears the most likely outcome of the summit," Laurent concludes.

Though little of substance can be decided before the Barack Obama administration enters office, the ideas put forward by Sarkozy over the past three months are likely to shape the agenda for subsequent meetings.

And whatever the ultimate results, history will record that the French president made it happen.