The shadow board of Invest Northern Ireland, the umbrella economic development body due to come into operation next year, could be faced with a conundrum when it comes to devising a new strategy for the North, the latest economic research would suggest.
According to the Northern Ireland Economic Research Centre, job creation has dominated the economic development agenda in the North for the last three decades.
In its latest study, it highlights the point that substantial amounts of public finance have been used to attract inward investment and a generous grant-based system of support has been in place for indigenous firms to help promote job creation.
But as a new economic development body prepares to take over the reins in Northern Ireland, the key question, according to the research centre, is how effective have these methods been in creating and sustaining jobs.
The centre has measured the number of manufacturing jobs created in the North between 1973 and 1993.
Its analysis shows that 122,500 jobs were created during the 20-year timeframe, while 192,900 jobs were lost - resulting in net job losses of 70,400 in Northern Ireland.
"During the period, we identify a pattern with gross job creation and job destruction two to 2.5 times larger on average than the resultant net change in employment," Mr Stephen Roper states in the paper on job creation and destruction.
Key results from the new research reflect varying differences in the job creation record of companies in different industrial sectors and between small and large firms.
According to Mr Roper, only small firms show a positive net change in employment during the 20 years examined in the study.
"Despite this the majority of new jobs were still created in larger firms, reflecting the relatively small proportion of total employment accounted for by small firms," he added.
Mr Roper said his research shows that job turnover is less cyclical in smaller companies, which suggests that they are less vulnerable to economic downturns.
Foreign direct investment is a key element of Northern Ireland's plans for economic growth, according to the outgoing chairman of the North's Industrial Development Board, Dr Alan Gillespie.
But he has acknowledged that new inward investment projects are likely to fall by 50 per cent in the current year, and that job creation by existing indigenous client companies is likely to be in the region of 60 to 70 per cent of last year's performance.
Mr Leslie Morrison, the chief executive-designate of Invest Northern Ireland, is therefore taking up his appointment in a downturn and in a period of increasing global uncertainty. Mr Morrison believes the immediate challenge for the new body is to establish a strategy that takes account of the current climate.
"It is a difficult time for everyone and not just for Northern Ireland.
"Invest Northern Ireland will have to be a lean and responsive organisation that can respond to the new economic environment.
"We are in the middle of an economic cycle and I believe we have a clear mission to conceptualise what our strategy needs to be going forward," Mr Morrison said.
Mr Morrison, who has enjoyed a 30-year career in international finance, chiefly with the investment bank JP Morgan, believes he is the right man to lead the new development agency.
"I feel confident that I have the experience and a lot of the skills that are needed in this position and I will not be working alone. I have a great shadow board drawn mainly from the private sector and we will be making further additions to that board.
"I believe that a big element will involve marketing Northern Ireland and that is a great challenge, but our immediate challenge must be to establish the structure and strategy for Invest Northern Ireland," Mr Morrison added.
