The dilemma now facing the legion of Telecom Eireann shareholders is whether to hold onto their stock or to sell it.
Those who already own shares will know that there is no easy answer to this question and the plethora of recommendations from the various stockbroking analysts around town often only adds to the confusion.
However, for those who haven't yet made their mind up, what the experts think may be of some interest.
The general view is that the short-term outlook for the shares is good because of what is called the "technical position" of the market for the shares. With many institutional investors still short of the stock, they are likely to remain buyers of the shares for some time yet, ensuring that the share price remains well supported.
Although some traders expect the share price to level off as ordinary retail investors come in to the market to sell their shares in the days ahead, most believe that in the short term it will remain strong as institutional investors - such as pension funds and investment companies - have less than they need.
The stock is expected to go into the Irish Stock Exchange index (ISEQ) around July 21st and will be the second largest company on the exchange, accounting for around 15 per cent of the index compared with AIB which has a weighting of 16 per cent and Bank of Ireland with 13 per cent.
Thus, institutions will need to buy a fair chunk of Telecom shares if the amount of its shares they hold in their portfolios is to even come close to matching its weighting on the Irish market.
Given its size, Telecom Eireann is also likely to surface on some of the broader European stock indices, such as the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index, which means it should register on the radar of overseas institutions as well.
In the medium to long term, however, views on how the stock will perform are mixed. There seems to be a consensus among analysts that above €5.00, the stock is entering very heady territory indeed and investors should consider selling.
But below that level, different brokers see value at different levels.
Dolmen Butler Briscoe believes that Telecom Eireann is worth between €3.60 to €4.20 at best and that progress toward €5.00 per share offers an excellent selling opportunity.
The broker believes that above €4.90, the share price discounts the maximum possible growth scenario and allows little in the way of upside for the next five years.
It also remains sceptical about an imminent takeover bid for the shares, pointing out that any bid would be expensive and would require the consent of staff and of KPN, the Dutch telecoms group set to emerge as the largest shareholder in Telecom.
Others are more positive. BCP Stockbrokers believes that a price of €4.50 reflects both the underlying value of the company and includes the potential for a bid. Another analyst believes the shares could top €5.00 in the months ahead and points out that Telecom has precedent on its side. While the experience of the various European state-owned telecom companies to have floated varied widely and proved very company-specific, all outperformed. For example SwissCom, which had an initial public offering last October, rose by 50 per cent over the first three months.
"The stock is at a premium to the European telecoms sector," says Mr Ciaran O'Neill, telecoms analyst with NCB Stockbrokers. "What the investor has to do is balance the reasons it deserves a premium with the size of that premium."
There are a lot of reasons for Telecom to trade above its peers.
The background factors, such as the strong growth of the Irish economy and the planned reduction in corporation tax to 12.5 per cent, are all firmly in its favour.
In company terms, Telecom is also well placed. It will have no debt after the sale of its stake in Cablelink, leaving it well-positioned to make acquisitions. In Eircell, it owns the leading mobile phone operator in a state which is witnessing rapid growth in mobile penetration while, like many other state-owned companies, it has significant hidden assets in the form of property and land around the State.
"The company already has decent income margins and it has the opportunity to grow revenues further through cost control," Mr O'Neill says.
Merger and acquisition activity in the sector remains high and Telecom might tempt an overseas company keen to buy into a high growth market and a company with strong cash-flow. Deutsche Telekom is known to be on the acquisition trail while, closer to home, British Telecom has also been mentioned as a possible suitor.
Analysts also point out that those who hold the shares for at least a year qualify for the loyalty bonus of free shares, worth some 4 per cent which is well above what most people can earn on deposit.
"Even if the share price is flat over the year, you get 4 per cent so there is a lot of protection built in," one analyst noted.
At the end of the day, investors have to make their own decision on whether to sell the shares and take their profit or hold onto them for the long-term. Much will depend on their cash needs at a given time and their attitude to risk.
If you have borrowed to buy the shares, you need to do your sums carefully to ensure that your gains outweigh your interest costs going forward.
Analysts suggest that holding out for a few weeks or months, in a bid to outwit the market and get a higher price, could prove counter-productive and involves more downside risk than upside.
You may be among those who don't like the idea of having a lot of money in a single stock. If it gives you sleepless nights, then you should consider moving into more diversified options such as the many mutual funds now on offer.
But for those who can afford to take a long-term view, the telecoms sector is an exciting place to be, provided you can cope with the spills as well as the thrills.
