Real loses samba beat

Nervous markets had little to reassure them at the end of last week as the Brazilian real was devalued for the second time in a week. Despite initially positive market reaction to the news that the currency would be allowed to float freely against the dollar, there is ongoing concern that the Latin American currency crisis could spread to Chile , Argentina and, Mexico, to say nothing of the effect it may have on the US which has a huge stake in the performance of the eighth-largest economy in the world. Traders will be hoping for the return of some sort of stability to markets this week, but is unlikely until investors and speculators are certain that Brazil has regained control of its errant currency.

British retail sector: British retail figures for December will attract close scrutiny in the aftermath of Marks & Spencer's shock warning to the City that it expected full-year profits to slip to just above half of last year's figure after poor Christmas sales exacerbated an already poor situation.

Analysts are forecasting a figure of around 0.1 per cent growth in the month giving a year on year figure of 2.2 per cent as consumers keep a wary eye on economic prospects and their money firmly in their pockets. This would mark a significant slowdown from the annual rate of 2.5 per cent in November when monthly sales grew by 0.8 per cent. Similar attention will focus on trading statements from M&S's rival Debenham and Body Shop as well as Tesco and Diageo today.

Monday

Results: Budgens (H1), Farepak (H1), Safestore (Q3), SFI Group (H1).

Meetings: EU finance ministers meet, preceded by meeting of euro zone ministers (Brussels); European Central Bank President Wim Duisenberg addresses EU Parliament Monetary Affairs Subcommittee (Brussels).

Indicators: Reuters quarterly survey on longterm forecasts for the British economy; Japanese current account (Nov), trade (Nov) and machinery orders (Nov); German wholesale prices (Dec).

Others: Tesco and Diageo issue trading statements; An Bord Bia issues details of the performance of Irish food and drink exports in 1998; Showcase Ireland (RDS to Wed).

Tuesday

Results: Aberforth Smaller Companies (H1), Debenham Tewson (H1), First Leisure, Fletcher King (H1), Somerfield (H1), Topps Tiles (H1).

A.G.M.: ASW Holdings (e.g.m.), Monks Investment Trust (e.g.m.), Raphael Zorn Helmsley, Rodime, Topps Tiles, Ultraframe.

Meetings: The financial services committee of the World Trade Organisation meets to discuss status of the 1997 pact, which is due to go into force from March 1999 (Geneva).

Indicators: British retail prices (Dec); French trade balance (Nov).

Others: Debenhams and Body Shop issue Christmas trading statements; European Movement Ireland publishes "The Euro Explained Your Questions Answered'.

Wednesday

Results: Aberforth Split Level (H1), Adscene Group (H1), Alldays, Cap Gemini, Coral Products (H1), Gooch and Housego, Industrial Control (H1), Interlink Foods (H1), Lonrho Africa, Iona (Q4).

A.G.M.: Baronsmead, Brewin Dolphin.

Meetings: Bank of France Monetary Policy Council meeting; Marketing Institute breakfast addressed by Mr Stephen Lombard, retail development manager of Guinness on the Guinness Irish pub concept (St Stephen's Green Centre, Dublin).

Indicators: British retail sales (Dec); US housing starts (Dec) and building permits (Dec); Japanese industrial production (Nov) and trade balance (Dec); German producer prices (Dec).

Others: Norwich Union new business figures; US Federal Reserve chairman Mr Alan Greenspan testifies on the state of the economy before the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee.

Thursday

Results: Banesto, JWE Telecom (H1), John Menzies (H1), Novartis, WE Electrical (H1), Wiggins Group (H1).

A.G.M.: Action Computer Supplies, Dragon Oil (e.g.m.), MEPC.

Meetings: European Central Bank governing council meeting (Frankfurt). Oireachtas Joint Committee on Public Enterprise and Transport meets to public transport infrastructure and operations.

Indicators: UK Chambers of Commerce quarterly economic survey, British building society lending (Dec), construction new orders (Nov), motor vehicle production (Dec) and M4 lending (Dec); US international trade (Nov), Philadelphia Federal Survey (Jan), weekly jobs and monetary data and Reuters quarterly survey of long-term forecasts for the US economy; German import/export prices (Dec); French consumer spending (Dec) and Reuters quarterly survey of long-term forecasts for the French economy.

Friday

A.G.M.: Euromoney Publications. MY Holdings, VTR.

Indicators: British consumer prices (Dec) and GDP (Q4); French industrial production (Nov).