Stocktake: A new global bull market for stocks?
Three-quarters of stock markets around the world have gained at least 20%
A pedestrian walks in front of an electronic quotation board displaying stock prices of the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo. Photograph: Kazuhiro Nogi/AFP
Stocks may have pulled back last week but the market action indicates we are now in a global bull market, according to Callum Thomas of Topdown Charts. Thomas, who suggested at March’s market bottom that a “generational buying opportunity in global equities” was at hand, notes that three-quarters of national stock markets around the world are in bull market territory – that is, they have gained at least 20 per cent.
Some might quibble with that definition. Nevertheless, the data shows the medium-term outlook for stocks tends to be bright in these instances. Thomas also notes the percentage of countries that had gained over the last 12 months hit “washed-out levels” (defined as less than 20 per cent) in March before turning up in May.
Again, this pattern has a “solid track record for producing profitable medium-term buying signals for global equities”. Finally, markets are awash in liquidity and stocks tend to do well when policy stimulus is implemented. Historic stimulus tailwinds and bullish medium-term technical signals indicates we are in a new cyclical bull market in global equities, says Thomas. Investors, fearful of another downdraft following last week’s retreat, will hope he is right.