New year, new opportunities

A new year is here, bringing opportunities for investors to win, lose or draw. Last year was one in which many people learned, or relearned, that investing is indeed a game - of risk and reward. Even the most informed investing, by definition, amounts to taking a chance. You can choose not to play in this game, of course. But if you aren't willing to take risks, you will probably have to settle for very little in the way of reward.

Many of the major risks to stock and bond markets, and the world economy, are well-quantified. Japan is in depression, and the fear remains that it, along with the Asian financial crisis, has already sparked a severe global deflation that will drive the value of real assets lower worldwide in the years ahead. Russia, while not an economic threat to the world, could be a political threat. The same can also be said for the year 2000 computer bug problem.

Meanwhile, Europe is in uncharted waters with the dawn of the euro; President Clinton will go on trial, and there is no telling what surprises could emanate from the Senate, given all of the other political shocks last year.

Mr Graham Tanaka, head of Tanaka Capital Management in New York and an investor for nearly 30 years, concedes a lot of things went wrong last year for markets. But looking ahead, he chooses to take a different view of the risks. "The Asiacrisis card has been played, the oil-Iraq crisis card has been played; the Clinton scandal card has been played. Given the number and magnitude of last year's crises, how many more could be out there?" he asks. He believes Asia may throw up some nice surprises for investors in the second half of 1999, if a recovery gets under way.

Each market player has their own formula for success. Mr Ron Baron, head of Baron Capital Management in New York, has a simple philosophy when it comes to investing in the stock market. "I try to figure out what's going to be a great business long-term and buy those stocks when they get more attractive - which they always do."