Market volatility presents threats and opportunities

The wild swings in share prices in recent weeks may have caused some dismay among many retail investors.

The wild swings in share prices in recent weeks may have caused some dismay among many retail investors.

An increasing number of Irish people are now exposed to the equity market, either by directly holding shares such as Eircom or through mutual funds or even by dint of having a pension. For those not used to the sharp fluctuations seen in global stock markets from time to time, the extreme volatility that has been in evidence since March may have come as shock.

However, despite the recent ups and downs in the markets, brokers and financial advisers remain steadfast in their advice.

"Don't do anything rash unless circumstances require you to do something," says Mr John Keilthy, head of the private client division at NCB Stockbrokers. "The best strategy is to hang tight and do nothing."

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He notes that while the recent drop in equity prices has been driven by fundamental factors, such as the prospect of higher US interest rates, it has been compounded by circumstances which have nothing to do with inflation or the cost of funds.

The influence of day traders, many of whom have borrowed money to buy shares, the end of the US tax year and even US investors keen to have money for the Easter holidays may all have exacerbated recent falls in the market, he says.

For those facing circumstances which require them to sell some of their equity assets, brokers say they should do their best to sell into strength rather than weakness. While it may sound obvious, panic-stricken investors can easily forget that the day the market is in full freefall is generally not the best time to liquidate your assets.

Meanwhile, should those with funds to invest steer clear of equity markets for the moment? Brokers note that with euro interest rates remaining low, equity investment remains a good longterm proposition, with the emphasis on long term.

Blue-chip is another concept that is very much back in fashion with investors advised to stick to shares in those companies with a proven track record.

While most analysts advise avoiding high-risk technology shares, they believe other sectors of the market may offer good value.

"Volatility of this nature presents threats and opportunities," says Mr Keilthy. "It provides an opportunity for someone who is not invested in the market as good quality stocks have fallen in tandem with lesser stocks."

NCB believes the Irish market, which has been a significant underperformer over the last year and a half, is attractive and particularly recommends the banks.

And what lies ahead?

Brokers agree that equity markets globally are unlikely to settle until there is greater clarity about the US economy and the likely fate of interest rates there.

A key date in this regard is May 16th when the US Federal Reserve meets amid widespread expectations that it will raise interest rates. The next US inflation report, which should provide further information on the health of the world's largest economy, is also due for release the same day.