Main Conclusions of ESRI Report

. Overall the gains to the EU of moving to a single currency should outweigh the cost of giving up the ability to adjust exchange…

. Overall the gains to the EU of moving to a single currency should outweigh the cost of giving up the ability to adjust exchange rates.

. The main gain to Ireland will come from lower interest rates. In the longer term rates here should be one percentage point lower inside EMU than outside and initially the gains should be more.

. There would also be savings from lower currency transaction costs.

. Competitiveness will be affected by EMU membership and the cost if Ireland joins and Britain stays out. This cost could rise significantly if sterling was volatile and fell significantly.

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. Overall, Ireland stands to gain from EMU. If Britain also joined, total employment in the medium term would be 20,000 higher, with GNP 1.4 per cent higher on average. If Britain stayed out and when the impact of possible sterling volatility is added, the gains could fall to 10,000 jobs, or a 0.4 per cent rise in GNP.

. In industry, the building sector will gain most from lower interest rates, boosting employment by up to 8,000 people. Small to medium sized companies with high borrowings should also gain.

. The sectors most exposed to losses due to their exposure to the British market are clothing, textiles and food processing, although individual firms in other sectors could also be exposed.

. The fast growing, export oriented sectors dominated by multinationals will not be affected significantly by the impact on EMU on exchange rates and interest rates. But membership of EMU should underpin investment in this sector.

. The financial sector would be the most affected sector, with job losses of 2,000 4,000 predicted, depending on whether Britain joined. For the financial sector, the effect of sterling entry would actually be unfavourable, as it would about double the loss of business, the report says. It also predicts that Ireland's bond and currency markets could be adversely effect, resulting in job losses.

. The retail sector would be largely unaffected, save for some once off conversion costs. The short term impact of the transition will be significant.

. The agriculture sector will be subject to special factors over the next 10 years which are likely to have much more radical effects than the introduction of EMU, according to the ESRI report.

. Tourism is likely to benefit more from the reduction in the costs of currency transactions than any other sector of the economy. However, the benefit will be relatively small in relation to total.