Forget about wireless banking, electronic wallets, and person-to-person payments. Account aggregators, brokerages, and institutions able to integrate Web- and human-dispensed advice are expected to be best-positioned to win new customers over the next few years.

These predictions came from Jack Stephenson, a director at McKinsey & Co. in New York, who based his views on research conducted with 2,000 consumers.

About 25 per cent of consumers are interested in aggregating their personal accounts online, Mr Stephenson said. But with many barriers still to overcome, including technology and legal issues, as well as distaste among consumers for revealing their passwords and account details, aggregation will not gain critical mass for two to three years.

Financial institutions able to perfect the integration of human and Web-enabled advice, particularly advice that is event-driven and highly personalisd, also will be well-positioned, he said. However, consumers be willing to pay for advice, so firms should be prepared to make significant technology investments.

Brokerages may be the most likely to win more affluent customers, Mr Stephenson said, since they have worked aggressively to add advice capabilities, and already hold a majority of assets. Though banks have had the opportunity to capture more wealthy customers as the lines between banks and brokerages has blurred in the US, they have not capitalised on it, Mr Stephenson said.

The economics of serving people online will become less attractive as time goes on, according to McKinsey. Customers already online tend to be young, affluent price seekers who require little advice. The second wave resembles Middle America in age and income: they shop less, seek known brands and advice, and want multiple channels, including branches.

The first wave of online financial customers has been online for more than a year and represents $4,400 of revenues to a financial institution. The second wave, which just came online last year, contributes $3,400, while the third wave, made up of people not yet ready to go online, will contribute $2,600 of revenues, according to McKinsey.

Consumers still spend the bulk of their financial services money offline, McKinsey found. Of the $62 billion of revenues that consumers spend on banking products annually, only $5 billion is executed online. In credit cards, consumers spend about $53 billion a year, of which $8 billion comes from those who open a credit card account online. They spend about $7 billion on car loans, with $100 million through the online channel.

Only $200 million of the $50 billion consumers spend on mortgages is closed online. "This is no surprise," said Mr Robert Waitman, associate principal at McKinsey. "It's still a paper-intensive process."

Brokerages have made the greatest strides in opening consumers' online wallets. Consumers spend about $44 billion on brokerage products and $11 billion of these revenues come through the Internet.

Assets of traditional institutions, such as branches, brands, human touch, and back-end fulfilment capabilities, will prove critical in helping firms move customers to the Internet, according to McKinsey. The research firm found that 20 per cent of online banking customers still visit a branch once a week and that a bank's most valuable customers tend to use multiple channels.

McKinsey advised traditional companies to move customers online quickly to capture cost savings and increase retention. McKinsey identified five criteria that can help financial institutions hold on to their customers. They are speed of response; continuous contact; real-time remote transactions; customer self-help; and personalisation.

Results were mixed when it came to determining if consumers desired one-stop shopping. The research shows that 60 per cent of consumers prefer to have all their needs met by one financial institution; 66 per cent want a consolidated view of their accounts online; and 47 per cent want one main adviser who can see their entire financial position.

At the same time, 56 per cent of consumers say they shop around for the best price for financial products and services, while 57 per cent do not want to consolidate accounts at one institution because it may not offer the best price.

Thirty per cent say they do not want to consolidate at one institution because it may lack expertise.