Intervention can be a costly business

The Bank of Japan intervened in currency markets this week, buying dollars and euros and selling the yen which has continued …

The Bank of Japan intervened in currency markets this week, buying dollars and euros and selling the yen which has continued to strengthen all year. In fact the yen is up about 10 per cent against the dollar and nearly 30 per cent against the euro because investors have been buying Japanese assets on the back of recovery in Asia.

The yen's strength has been a double-edged sword for the Japanese, though, because exporters are finding business more difficult as the currency appreciates.

Back in 1971 the US dollar/yen rate was 357.42 and it has been on a pretty relentless appreciation march since then.

However, the Japanese Finance minister, Mr Kiichi Miyazawa, feels that the current move is "disturbing for the market" which is why he gave the nod on intervention.

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Even though the Japanese economy expanded this year, Mr Miyazawa doesn't want to jeopardise business or consumer confidence by allowing the currency to appreciate too quickly. Fighting a losing battle, I'd have thought, but a bit of year-end intervention has, at least, made markets more interesting.

Meanwhile, the euro continues its inexorable slide. Until recently, Mr Wim Duisenberg, president of the European Central Bank, has been pretty sanguine about it but he's begun to mutter that further declines won't help public confidence in the currency.

It's still more of a perception thing than an economic necessity to have a stronger euro, but - in the shifting word of financial markets - perception matters a lot. And probably more in the somewhat less shifting world of central bank governors and finance ministers.

With a clarity of insight rarely seen in currency markets, the French finance minister, Mr Christian Sautter, announced that "the euro is relatively weak because the dollar and the yen are relatively strong". So glad he could share that with us.

Apparently, Mr Duisenberg's mail bag is groaning with the weight of letters from German savers complaining that the euro's fall is eroding the value of their hard earned savings. And it's only a matter of time before the ECB council starts wondering if it shouldn't ride shotgun on the Bank of Japan's tails and do a bit of intervention of its own.

I've always been sceptical of intervention - the Bank of Japan is only slowing the inevitable and most central banks have had their fingers burned more than once in trying to take on the markets - but if the ECB's postbag fills up even more you can just see it conclude that it has no choice but to buy some euros.

Shareholders in the troubled German construction company, Holzmann, are undoubtedly wondering what on earth is going to happen to the company. Back in the summer the German construction industry was growing and nobody was particularly concerned about the future of the 150-year-old Holzmann.

At the beginning of November the company denied reports that it would post a loss this year - for the third year in a row. By the middle of the month Holzmann had uncovered "problem assets" of 2.4 billion deutschmarks (€1.23 billion) and began discussions with its creditor banks to try and avert insolvency. This didn't do much for the value of the shares of the creditor banks either - some of which are shareholders in the company - while Holzmann's plunged.

As always, the solution to bad management is to lay off the workers - in this case 3,000 of them. The shares were suspended while the builder had talks with the banks, the talks failed, the directors started insolvency proceedings and the shares were back to being a sell again.

The idea of 3,000 jobs going in Holzmann, as well as the knockon effect on other companies, was enough to give Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder some sleepless nights. He urged the company and the banks to talk again. He became very popular with the workers and the shares doubled.

More than 700,000 traded in one day which made it one of the most traded stocks in Germany. By last Thursday Mr Schroeder had convinced the creditors to back a 4.3 billion deutschmark rescue package, as well as pledging 250 million deutschmarks in government funding.

As eyebrows were raised all across Europe at the idea of government funding for a failing company, Mr Schroeder assured everyone that the contribution was "within legal limits on the European level".

Euphoria was short-lived, however. The shares went down 21 per cent on Friday and continued to slide at the beginning of the week. Talk that some of the management knew of the losses a lot earlier didn't help. The chief financial officer resigned on Friday.

Never one to shirk the hard stories, the company's current chief executive, Mr Heinrich Binder, blamed a "criminal system" under the former management for the current financial troubles. The German analysts reckon it'll take at least two years for the company to restructure.

And since it is now December I suppose I can mention Christmas. I wouldn't except for the fact that seasonal fayre has taken over the supermarket. It is now impossible to buy a packet of Mr Kipling cakes that haven't, in some way, been festively updated.

Chocolate rolls have now become Yuletide Logs. Cherry bakewells are now Santa bakewells. I am switching my custom to stores that are not weighed down by items already bedecked with mistletoe, holly and little gold bells.

Sheila O'Flanagan is a fixed-income specialist at NCB Stockbrokers