Intel is still on top, but rivals are gaining

ANYONE buying a computer these days will be warned by the sales rep about "future proofing"

ANYONE buying a computer these days will be warned by the sales rep about "future proofing". Quite apart from the Year 2000 Millennium Bomb, or whether the keyboard has the symbol for the euro, the speed of the standard microchip now doubles every 18 months; a computer purchased today could soon he obsolete.

The fact that the computer equivalent of a Lamborghini can become a Ford Capri in such a short time makes computer buyers nervous. They fret for weeks before they shell out the cash, trying to find out when the next generation of chip will hit the market. In reality, there is no way to future proof one's company, but paying the extra cash for the very latest chip will at least guarantee a year or so at the cutting edge.

While all of this makes Intel, the microchip manufacturer, very happy indeed, it does create its own problems. Just now, Intel says it has not managed to optimise its sales because demand for the new MMX technology chips, which allow better use of multimedia, has exceeded the company's expectations.

"We've been setting a cracking pace," says Mr Liam Cahill, Intel's media relations manager in Ireland, where the company makes an estimated 20 to 25 per cent of all the company's chips, as well as every Intel PC motherboard in Europe.

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"When your whole strategy is about ramping up a new product, and getting it out as fast as possible, there are risks," he adds.

But all is not well on the continent, especially in France and Germany, and industry analysts say rival microchip makers are nibbling at Intel's dominant share.

"The European market is showing single digit growth rates, and that will continue," says Mr Philip Williams at International Data Corporation in London. "The slowdown is caused by pressure on countries to make monetary union, and that is hitting individuals and firms alike."

Last week, Intel shares fell back after the company said weak demand, especially in Europe, would force the figure for second quarter sales up to 10 per cent below expectations.

Some independent analysts agree with Intel's assessment that the introduction of Pentium chips with MMX multimedia technology in January has weakened sales of older Pentium chips, and say the sales graph will rise more sharply once PC manufacturers sell off machines that don't have the new technology.

But many do not agree with Intel's assertions that competitors are not winning market share. Both AMD and Cyrix, two smaller rivals, have finally released chips that can match Intel products in performance, and are making inroads.

"They have come out with some very strong products and it seems they are in for more market share," says Mr Emmanuel Lalloz, a German market researcher, "Intel doesn't have complete control of the industry."

Fujitsu, which has a 3.7 per cent market share in Europe, and Vobis Microcomputer, one of Germany's largest PC makers, have agreed to use AMD's K6 processor. Compaq and IBM also use Cyrix chips in some of their models.

In the meantime, Intel is doing its own version of future proofing; rapidly expanding its manufacturing operation, in Leixlip, Co Kildare, and planning to get the jump on competitors again by introducing yet another new chip - codenamed Merced - by July or August next year.

The company's campus - at 370 acres already larger than some towns - employs 3,500 people, with a further 800 employed by companies providing services on site. Intel is ahead of schedule in building a new, 80,000 square metre, £1 billion plant, called Fab 14, which will require a further 1,500 workers.

Last week, Intel applied to Kildare County Council for an extension to the extension; it is so confident of demand for the next generation of microchip that it believes it will need an extra 18,000 square metres. The company says this will increase production capacity by 50 per cent, but cannot say yet how many more employees this will mean.

The application seeks approval for a twostorey over basement wafer fabrication production with roof mounted equipment to the existing Fab 14 complex.

Intel has also asked the council for permission to construct a 3,600 square metre, two storey energy centre and warehouse building, and two new generators, a 1,500 square metre support building and another 380 car spaces around the campus.

In an interview with The Irish Times in April, the chief executive of Intel, Mr Andy Grove, stressed the company's commitment to Ireland, adding that the educational policies of successive governments had helped the firm's success.

"Intel was located in Ireland because we felt that there was an education system in Ireland that was producing a larger number of technical people than there was job opportunities for. So they were plentiful and available," Mr Grove said.

"Consequently, we had a superb startup. So we are just building on exactly the same strengths that attracted us there in the first place," he added.