Government now under pressure on jobs

THE latest unemployment figures can only increase pressure on the Government to announce new measures to tackle the problem in…

THE latest unemployment figures can only increase pressure on the Government to announce new measures to tackle the problem in the Budget. The official figures show a rise of 4,900 in the number of people out of work over the past 12 months, with an upward trend evident in most recent months.

In the month of December, the figures show a rise of 2,900, adjusted for seasonal trends. This follows a drop of 2,600 in November - the only significant decline of recent months.

At the end of December the latest figures from the Central Statistics Office record 283,300 people signing on the live register compared with 278,400 at the end of 1994.

The figures will be a disappointment to the Government and puts greater pressure on the Minister for Finance, Mr Quinn, to provide for measures to reduce unemployment in the Budget.

READ MORE

Shortly after the figures were published, the Minister for Enterprise and Employment, Mr Bruton, said he was to bring forward new measures to deal with unemployment.

The Government has already been examining a series of proposals aimed at tackling long term unemployment. More than half of the people on the live register have been out of work for more than a year and count as long term unemployed.

Reforms to employers' PRSI and the taxation system are among the measures being considered by the Government to alleviate high unemployment and may also be covered in Mr Bruton's new proposals.

Alterations may be made to Government training schemes, such as the Community Employment Scheme, while other initiatives under consideration include new ways to targeting areas with particularly high unemployment.

Unemployment always rises in December due to a range of seasonal factors, including fewer jobs in areas like construction and agriculture.

However, the increase last month was more than would normally be expected due to these factors and continued the generally upward trend of recent months.

The accuracy of the live register figures has been called into question, following Labour Force figures which show 80,000 fewer people out of work that the CSO.

The Labour Force Survey put the number of unemployed in mid April last year at 192,000, compared with a live register figure for the end of April of 276 300

The CSO has said it is unable to point to a reason for the huge difference in the unemployment as measured by the Labour Force Survey and the live register.

However, CSO statisticians have indicated that changes in the administration of the live register and social welfare legislation are major factors for the disparity between the two measures.

Changes in the means test for unemployment benefit and payment levels over the intervening period, the CSO believes, may account for some difference in the rate.

Similarly, changes in the social welfare legislation, allowing more women to claim benefit in their own right and the introduction of State sponsored employment schemes, may also have altered the live register figures, it has said.

This along with evidence of strong growth in employment has led Ministers to argue that the live, register is giving a misleading picture.

They believe that unemployment must be falling, given the health of the economy and the jobs market.

It is understood that consideration is now being given to a quarterly labour force survey to give a more reliable and regular measure.

But in the meantime the only up to date measure of the unemployment trend is the live register and the signals it is sending are not welcome to the Government.