Euro takes heart as dollar loses

Before Wim Duisenberg and his colleagues in the European Central Bank congratulate themselves on the probity of their stance on interest rates, and how the euro has regained some lost ground against the dollar and other currencies, they might bear in mind that the currency's fortunes are more the consequence of others weakness than any surge in support for the euro.

Quite simply, the dollar is going through a rough patch. Fears for the US economy are growing and there is a feeling abroad that the US government would not be loathe to see a weakening of the currency, despite protestations to the contrary.

For now, that is good news for the euro and for EU inflation, if not necessarily for Irish exporters, who source much of their market outside the euro zone.

In the long run, however, it is as much a signal that the euro, for all its vaunted independence, will find its fortunes swinging inversely to those of the more powerful dollar.

That might cause a few sleepless nights for those in Frankfurt charged with making the euro a fitting successor to the deutschmark and one of the big three defensive currency plays.