The number of people shopping in Dublin city centre is at an all-time high, according to a new report from Gunne Property Consultants. According to the report, "fears that rapid expansion in out-of-town shopping centres would lead to deserted high streets have failed to materialise".
The consultants carry out a quarterly survey of pedestrian traffic through the city's main shopping streets and the latest figures show a 50 per cent increase in traffic along Grafton Street and a 65 per cent increase in traffic on Henry Street, when compared to the same period last year.
However, the survey warns that with the huge increase in retail floor space in the Dublin region and the emergence of better provincial shopping centres, the Dublin retail market "is on the verge of being over-shopped".
The figures in the survey are compiled by examining the "footfall" on the streets during Thursday evenings and Saturday afternoons, two of the most popular periods during the week for shopping.
According to the report, some 20,000 people on average were recorded on Grafton Street on Saturdays during the period examined, compared to about 14,000 last year. The survey points out that 20,000 is just 500 people short of pedestrian levels recorded at Christmas.
There was also an increase from just over 10,000 to 16,714 in pedestrian traffic on Henry Street during Saturday afternoons. Thursday night shopping is "becoming increasingly popular", the report says, with figures up 17 per cent on Grafton Street to 10,782, while on Henry Street the figures are up 53 per cent to 7,661.
The report says the Dublin retail market remains strong, with approximately 1.6 million square feet of retail development under construction due to come on stream in 1998.
In a separate commentary, Gunnes says that prime retail yields of 4.5 per cent and secondary yields of 6 per cent are now common.
"General economic growth, together with low inflation and low interest rates, has led to a dramatic increase in consumer spending which has fueled the retail market," the firm says.
"Trends in retailing are changing all the time, with demand for retail warehousing particularly strong. However, despite the excellent demand for this product, there are few well-located sites available," the commentary says.
It says the retail warehouse developments at the Blanchardstown Centre, Liffey Valley shopping centre and on Oscar Traynor Road illustrate the demand which is present.
"A factory outlet centre is planned for Rathdowney, Co Laois, and is due for completion in 1999, and the American company Costco is launching its first Irish retail warehouse in Dublin later this year," Gunnes point out.
"Therefore, it can be seen that the trend in retailing is towards these large warehouse/factory outlet developments, which are already common both in the United States and the UK," the commentary adds. The arrival of British and US multiples has meant that Irish retailers are being "pushed out of prime pitches" because they do not have the capital backing of these larger competitors, it comments.
As examples of the high rents, Gunnes points out that Zone A rents on Grafton Street are currently commanding in the order of £200 per square foot. The main shopping centres around the city are commanding rents of about £150 per square foot, according to Gunnes.
