Stocktake: Are investors underestimating inflation threat?

Inflationary pressures may prove more ‘sticky’ than investors believe, warns market strategist

Last month’s Bank of America fund manager survey found high inflation was viewed as the biggest tail risk facing markets. Photograph: iStock

Last month’s Bank of America fund manager survey found high inflation was viewed as the biggest tail risk facing markets. Photograph: iStock

 

US inflation hit a 13-year high of 5 per cent last week, but markets’ nonchalant reaction suggests investors share the Federal Reserve’s view that the uptick will be temporary.

Last month’s Bank of America fund manager survey found high inflation was viewed as the biggest tail risk facing markets. Those fears have subsided lately, as evidenced by stock market calm and 10-year bond yields falling back below 1.5 per cent.

Inflationary pressures may prove more “sticky” than investors believe, cautions market strategist Jeroen Blokland. He notes the St Louis Fed Price Pressures Measure indicates an 84 per cent chance inflation will exceed 2.5 per cent in the coming year.

Between 2004 and 2006, says Blokland, when the price pressures measures stayed elevated for a prolonged period, US inflation averaged well above 3 per cent.

Similarly, a National Federation of Independent Business survey shows small business owners are more concerned about inflation than at any time since 1981.

Nevertheless, global markets are priced for a “prolonged period of inflationary somnolence”, noted outgoing Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane last week. Haldane thinks the inflation threat is underestimated, as does Allianz’s Mohamed El-Erian. The assumption inflation will be transitory is “unfortunate”, says El-Erian, as “both the scale and scope of the micro and macro data necessitate a more open mindset”.

Inflationary pressures may well subside, but that’s not going to be clear for some time. Until then, says Blokland, “some stickiness of inflation should not be ruled out”.

The Irish Times Logo
Commenting on The Irish Times has changed. To comment you must now be an Irish Times subscriber.
SUBSCRIBE
GO BACK
Error Image
The account details entered are not currently associated with an Irish Times subscription. Please subscribe to sign in to comment.
Comment Sign In

Forgot password?
The Irish Times Logo
Thank you
You should receive instructions for resetting your password. When you have reset your password, you can Sign In.
The Irish Times Logo
Please choose a screen name. This name will appear beside any comments you post. Your screen name should follow the standards set out in our community standards.
Screen Name Selection

Hello

Please choose a screen name. This name will appear beside any comments you post. Your screen name should follow the standards set out in our community standards.

The Irish Times Logo
Commenting on The Irish Times has changed. To comment you must now be an Irish Times subscriber.
SUBSCRIBE
Forgot Password
Please enter your email address so we can send you a link to reset your password.

Sign In

Your Comments
We reserve the right to remove any content at any time from this Community, including without limitation if it violates the Community Standards. We ask that you report content that you in good faith believe violates the above rules by clicking the Flag link next to the offending comment or by filling out this form. New comments are only accepted for 3 days from the date of publication.