EXIT STRATEGY - COMMUNICATIONS:IT PAYS to appear confident, no matter how dire the circumstances.
Economists are still proffering their opinions on the airwaves and in the press, despite some of them having poor track records in predicting the current economic difficulties. So why are media outlets continuing to facilitate them? Well, according to new research highlighted by the New Scientist magazine, cockiness pays off.
The study, by Don Moore of Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, shows we prefer advice from a confident source so much that we are willing to overlook previous assessments from them that may have proved to be incorrect.
Friends First chief economist Jim Power was recently praised on RTÉ's Late Debate for having sounded an early warning on the sub-prime lending scandal in the US. However, the self-deprecating expert admitted that he had not anticipated "just how bad it was going to get".
Power says he does his best to communicate his opinions in an understandable way, but never tries to give the impression he knows exactly what is going to happen in the future.
"Given my own personal position, I'm called on to comment. I don't believe the future is predictable. I never give the impression I know exactly what's going to happen. It's up to the listener to make their own mind up."
Power says people are fully capable of distinguishing a bad point from a good one, economic or otherwise, no matter how confidently it is presented. On listening to or reading about a debate, he says: "What I want is a strong, confident, clear message, and I'll make up my own mind whether I believe it or not."
However, Power says the Government needs to project a confident attitude, rather than a "bumbling and fumbling" one, to allow people "buy in" to its approach to tackling the economic crisis. "In situations of crisis, be they at family, company or economic level, the one thing that's absolutely essential to maintain is some semblance of confidence and strong leadership," he says.
"One of the biggest problems since last June or July is lack of leadership. People have failed to buy into the bumbling and fumbling attitude government has taken."
Power also stresses the obligation of the opposition to provide leadership. He cites the 1987 example of the Tallaght Strategy, in which then Fine Gael leader Alan Dukes decided not to oppose cuts in government spending deemed necessary for the good of the nation. "Almost overnight confidence began to pick up, and we grew our way out of the crisis."
Power says while the external environment is difficult, any perception of tripping from one crisis to the next at a domestic level will only undermine the confidence of industry, business and consumers.
Paula Mullin combines marketing and public relations experience with career coaching in her work for communications consultancy Drury. She says confidence cannot be faked.
"Real confidence comes from a belief in yourself and your abilities. People can see through fake confidence. You have to tap into that belief in yourself," she says.
"Confidence is very much a natural thing that comes from following that belief."
Mullin warns that a confident attitude is impossible to cultivate if you are not playing to your personal strengths. "Confidence is a struggle if you are trying to do something that you are not totally meant to be doing," she says. "If you're aligned to what you're meant to be doing in life, there's a natural flow. You may still find yourself in situations that are a little bit daunting, but you trust yourself to be able to deliver."
Mullin says she has come across people for whom every day at work is a struggle. They are "fighting against themselves" because their job does not match their key values.
She says this is often because they have invested so much time and effort into progressing a particular career that veering off in another direction seems unthinkable. "A lot of people do know what they want to be doing, but they think they can't because they are an engineer or a solicitor or whatever. They put themselves in a wee box."
The recession has often taken this daunting decision out of people's hands to some extent, she says. People who were previously fearful of investing time and effort into a different career have been forced to confront the prospect of having to do so, as they face the possibility of being made redundant. "It's still a brave thing, but it's like the decision has been taken out of their hands."
Eibhlin Johnston, managing director of Think Coaching, was one of the driving forces behind the recent Think 2 Act conference for people who have lost their jobs in the downturn. One young electrician who was made redundant at the beginning of the year attended the conference and told The Irish Times: "Everything is negative in my head; I can't just let that continue."
Johnston says it's "completely and utterly" possible for people to adjust a negative mindset. "If you can imagine you have a CD player in your head and it's stuck on track one which is all negative and 'woe is me'. You need to change the track to a positive one to change the mindset. It's about making the switch."
Johnston worked in the financial services sector for 18 years before moving to a role coaching business owners and executives. She says those working in financial services and related industries are often hardest hit - in a psychological sense - by the economic crisis.
"The Irish financial services industry was started in the late 1980s and early 1990s by a cohort of people, and it was the only life they knew. This was something we never thought we'd see in Ireland, and it happened in the last 20 years.
"When the markets started to tumble, there was nearly a sense of 'what happened?'"
The most frightening aspect of the crisis, for Irish workers, was the sense of having no control over their personal situations, she says.
"From an Irish point of view, I feel it was that lack of control. There was a sense of 'What can we do?' when that shudder was felt in the international marketplace." However, Johnston warns that positive thought must be backed up by determined action, which can often involve changing traditional patterns of behaviour that "are locked inside of us".
Celine Mullins, managing director of Act 4 Business, acknowledges it can take a great effort to maintain confidence in the current climate. "The problem is that people's confidence is shattered because there is so much negative talk around. With the amount of negative information, it's very hard to keep the confidence going," she says.
"Thousands of negative messages are going through our brains. To get through what's going on, you have to make an effort to fill your brain with positive messages. Unless you do that, the negative messages will win out."
Voice coach Olivia MacDonnell, director of Confident Speak, says we are more likely to believe someone who delivers their message with confidence and composure.
"It's also in our nature to be very hesitant to change our opinions and beliefs about somebody once we've made a decision. So perhaps this is where the willingness to continue to believe and listen - despite a poor track record - comes from."
