If the EU concedes any more ground in the world trade talks in relation to access for beef, it will have the most serious consequences for the European food industry, a leading Irish marketing expert has claimed.
Irish Food Board executive Paddy Moore recently told a briefing of MEPs that more concessions would put at risk the EU's capacity to consistently supply high quality food to European consumers.
"The EU Commission's impact analysis of its current market access offer on the beef sector suggests that EU beef imports will more than double to 1.3 million tonnes, the equivalent of 15 per cent of EU-25 consumption," said Mr Moore.
"EU beef production will fall by a further 10 per cent with price levels strongly affected. Despite this, the EU is being asked to concede far more," he said.
"The potential impact of this becomes clear when one examines a scenario where the G20 thresholds would form the basis of a final agreement in relation to market access," said Mr Moore.
"Under this scenario, beef imports could show a tenfold increase, and the projected decline of 10 per cent in the EU breeding herd - our production base - would accelerate.
"It would pose serious consequences for industry viability and for its 2.6 million producers and the 1.5 million processing and ancillary workers," he warned.
He said prices and profits would be significantly affected as already high value cuts made up two-thirds of total imports, equating to almost 15 per cent of consumption of those cuts.
These were the cuts that EU processors relied on to generate a substantial proportion of market returns, particularly when sold to higher quality hotels and restaurants. Specifically, producers currently generated two-thirds of their returns from the higher priced cuts, he said. He added that consumer reaction to avian influenza had highlighted the instability in international trade caused by periodic outbreaks of animal disease and this raised a major concern regarding continuity of import supplies.
"The most recent foot and mouth outbreaks in South America have significantly curtailed beef and pig meat exports, especially from Brazil. Argentinian beef exports have also been curtailed, arising from their Government's decision to moderate domestic food price inflation," said Mr Moore.
"The significance of such developments becomes apparent when it is realised that in 2005, two countries, namely Brazil and Argentina, accounted for 85 per cent of EU beef imports," he said.
"There can be little argument with the aim of trade liberalisation, especially if it focuses on improving economic and social development in poor countries.
"However, any agreement must also ensure the continuity and security of adequate food supplies to EU consumers and take into account the role of farming in fostering sustainable economic and environmental developments to the benefit of the producer, the consumer and the citizen alike," he concluded.
