Financial analysts are grappling with a major paradox in post-apartheid South Africa. The share of market capitalisation on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange held by black-controlled companies is falling dramatically while that of Afrikaner-controlled companies is rising sharply.
The African National Congress, which governs South Africa, has made black economic empowerment a central policy objective. Afrikaners, who ruled South Africa for 46 years and who used state power to advance their cause financially, are not meant to be prime beneficiaries of ANC hegemony.
The paradox is highlighted by an Afrikaner declaration of loyalty to President Thabo Mbeki. Signed by 35 Afrikaner business notables, the declaration refers specifically to Mr Mbeki's recent state of the nation speech which was characterised by its strongly pro-capitalist approach and praises him for his "vision and leadership".
The Afrikaner mogul most closely identified with the declaration, Mr Mof Terreblanche, said: "We wanted to tell our colleagues and all South Africans, particularly young people, that we have hope and trust in South Africa."
The declaration is the sequel to another event: the publication last month of the latest edition of the authoritative McGregor's Who Owns Whom? It shows a spectacular increase in the share of Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) - the only one in South Africa - held by Afrikaner-controlled companies, noting that the share has risen from 24 per cent in 1996 to 35 per cent today.
But, according to Business Map, which chronicles and analyses developments on the economic front, black control is declining and, with the imminent unbundling of New Africa Investments Limited (Nail), threatens to fall to under 1 per cent of the JSE capitalisation.
Nail, once described as the flagship of black empowerment, will undergo a major metamorphosis when it finally sheds its subsidiaries, including its microlending and investment banking units. One consequence of the unbundling will be that control of Nail will revert to its predominantly white institutional shareholders and management.
According to Business Map, "the five listed firms in the Nail stable accounted for over 40 per cent of the total capitalisation of the black-controlled firms listed on the JSE until a few weeks ago".
Hence the anticipated sharp fall in the black share of the JSE once the unbundling process is completed. While there is speculation that an alternative blackled consortium may try to rescue Nail for the black community, there is no hard evidence that it will succeed in raising the huge amounts of money involved.
The imminent and seemingly inevitable unbundling of Nail - triggered by a shareholders rebellion against an attempt by the directors to vote themselves huge sums of money - is but one of several disasters to overtake black economic empowerment.
As Focus, the journal published by the Helen Suzman Foundation, notes: "Three of the privatisations thus far brokered by government have seen state assets handed over to black empowerment companies. Of these SunAir and Aventura (a resort company) have collapsed, while a third, Alexcor (a diamond mining company) is on the verge of collapse."
Another sign of the reversal of fortunes in the black community is the destructive feuding in the National African Federated Chamber of Commerce (Nafcoc), which served as the voice of black business for decades.
Apart from the ousting of its president, Mr Steven Skhosana, last month after he called for an investigation into the "looting" of the organisation by its members, Nafcoc owes 1.8 million South African rand (€171,971) to the taxman. While Nafcoc is wont to talk about "apartheid taxes", the bulk of its debt was accumulated after the ANC came to power in 1994 in South Africa's first, fully democratic elections.
