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The French political system kept the far right out. Now what?

The centre and the left in France will need to decide what else they agree on other than opposing Marine Le Pen

Journalists standing inside the National Assembly as newly elected members of the French parliament arrive in Paris
Journalists standing inside the National Assembly as newly elected members of the French parliament arrive in Paris
Jack Power's picture
Jack Power in Paris
Mon Jul 08 2024 - 17:12

The French political system worked as it was designed to do, keeping the extreme of the far right from power, but what comes next is not clear.

France does not have a tradition of coalitions that stretches across competing political camps. It may have to get used to the idea quickly if it wants to avoid a year of deadlock.

It was one thing for the New Popular Front, the coalition of several left-wing parties, to work with French president Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance to successfully head off the threat of the far right winning power. It will be a much bigger ask for the two rivals to find some way to cobble together a workable partnership that would be able to pass legislation.

The New Popular Front, which includes the radical France Unbowed, the Communist Party, the centre-left Socialists and the Greens, stunned even its own supporters to become the biggest group in the parliament. It won 182 of the 577 seats in the National Assembly elections on Sunday, followed by Macron’s camp which won 168 seats, and then Marine Le Pen’s far-right, anti-immigrant, National Rally which ended up with 143 seats.

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Already the revisionism has begun, with some suggesting that the outcome was exactly the far-right defeat Macron had sought to engineer. But the most basic rule of politics is to get more votes than your opponent. Macron called the snap election four weeks ago in the hope his centrist coalition would emerge as the only alternative to keep the National Rally from power, allowing him to win back an outright majority.

That did not happen. Instead the left quickly came together under one banner, while it was Macron’s centrist group that was caught flat-footed and ultimately lost a third of its seats. His coalition came second, mainly thanks to the effort by the centre and the left to avoid both standing candidates against the far right in individual constituencies.

The talk in France has now turned to what kind of government can be formed from the divided make-up of the new parliament, where no group is even close to touching distance of a majority.

The centre-left Socialists and Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s more radical France Unbowed were never comfortable bedfellows, only coming together during the campaign to stop the National Rally. Mélenchon is nearly as polarising as Le Pen, and for some in the political centre viewed as just as untouchable when it comes to striking any coalition pact.

The most likely prospect for a deal would see Macron’s centrists and the more moderate parties in the New Popular Front work together. The numbers suggest such a coalition would still fall short of the 289 seats needed for a majority. An uneasy minority government of the left and the centre would have a tough time agreeing on policies never mind getting them through parliament afterwards.

The Republicans, who won more than 60 seats, could come into the fold to make up the numbers as part of a grand coalition. The right-wing party tore itself apart after its leader, Eric Ciotti, led one half of it into an electoral pact with Le Pen. Sharing power with Macron and the left could trigger another split among the remaining centre-right faction of the party.

If no combination of groups can come to some form of agreement France will be left with a hung parliament until fresh elections can be called in June 2025. Another option is the appointment of a technocratic government of officials, but that would likely only be considered by Macron if a minority government or grand coalition has been tried and fails.