Swedish souls grapple with uncertainties of Nato membership

Skansen is where Swedes go to recharge their souls. Perched on a hill overlooking central Stockholm, the open-air museum – think Bunratty Park meets 19th century Nordic – preserves vanished pre-industrial Swedish life and attracts 1.3 million people annually.

On Wednesday morning visitors strolled happily past red timber farmhouses and pens with goats and cows. For many it is a quick and effective respite from everyday life, in particular the debate over Sweden’s application to join Nato.

Triggered by Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, and spurred on by Finland’s entry last April, Sweden finally got unanimous support from alliance members this week after a shift from two holdouts Turkey and Hungary.

Nearly two-thirds of Swedes now support Nato membership, according to a recent poll. Rather than jubilation, though, the mood in the capital is one of ambivalent inevitability.

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“This has been going on and on but I don’t feel we are threatened, so I’m not sure why we are joining,” said Jan, a local retiree, at a viewing platform in Skansen.

History looms large in Sweden these days. It is 500 years since Gustav Vasa was elected king and the modern Sweden began to emerge. The last two centuries saw this neutral country prosper, at peace with its neighbours. Nato membership closes the non-aligned door and opens another – but to what?

At an outdoor Skansen restaurant young father Erik struggles to feed his two-year-old daughter meatballs and mashed potato. Despite fatherhood duties he says he has been following the Nato debate “very closely”.

“I’m for membership because we share so many values with Nato partners, though I’m not sure if people are really aware of what membership means,” he says. “The most interesting thing in all this has been the hit to our self-esteem. I think in future we will be a lot more modest, a more humble country. At least I hope so.”

This week’s Nato summit in Vilnius ended a year-long high-wire walk for Sweden – and high-stakes brinkmanship from Turkey. Ignoring pressure to fast-track Stockholm’s application, Ankara demanded a clampdown on Swedish-resident members of what it views as terrorist groups. Sweden responded by agreeing to tighten up its anti-terrorism laws, change its constitution and, on Monday, increase economic co-operation with Turkey and its tanking economy. For good measure Sweden has even agreed to lobby for Turkey’s stalled EU membership and fight anti-Islamic feeling in Europe.

Though Swedish prime minister Ulf Kristersson described the breakthrough as “historic”, his officials are watching and waiting for last-minute hiccups. Their most optimistic date for accession is the end of July.

And their pessimistic prediction? “We are onlookers at this stage, it’s about Turkey and the US now,” says one Swedish official, in reference to Turkey’s request for the US to supply it with F-16 fighter jets – an issue that appears to have been resolved at the Nato summit in Vilnius.

Even if Nato membership for is now more when then if, Swedish critics of the alliance are not going quietly.

“This decision has been taken very quickly,” says Kerstin Bergea, chair of the Swedish Peace Association, which works for peace and disarmament. “We have not had time to talk about what it means for Sweden to join a nuclear alliance.”

Some leading defence analysts agree with her, even those closer to the political establishment. For Magnus Christiansson, senior defence lecturer at the Swedish Defence University, close ties to Nato in recent years have given Swedish soldiers first-hand experience of conflict in the Balkans, Libya and Afghanistan. Politicians, too, have debated these deployments and discussed Nato membership in detail. And outside of these circles?

“Our population has not been exposed to warfare for hundreds of years,” says Christiansson, a peaker at Ireland’s recent public consultation on defence policy. “If I’m honest, Ireland has just had the consultation process Sweden should have had.”

Back in the rustic streets of Skansen, a bonneted young woman sings of the benefits – and risks – of seizing the moment in the 1930 song En Stilla Flirt (A Quiet Flirtation). As they listen some visitors smile at the extra layer of meaning as their nation waits for Nato.

“Why forego a quiet flirtation ... even one secret kiss,” she sings. “The moment may never come again/take what is offered when you get it.”