Unruffled Kidney likely to keep the faith

RUGBY/ SIX NATIONS CHAMPIONSHIP: Gerry Thornleyexpects Ireland's coach to avoid making too many unforced changes in the aftermath of one bad day at the office in Paris

THE STADE de France reality check has removed the possibility of Ireland winning back-to-back Grand Slams and also, seemingly, deflated much of the optimism generated by the previous 12-game, 15-month unbeaten run.

One of the problems with scaling such peaks is it makes the fall all the harder, but there remains a safe pair of hands on the tiller. Declan Kidney doesn’t do panic and won’t be inclined to do so now.

The unbeaten 2009 calendar year was always in part because there was no tour to the Southern Hemisphere. With six of the established big guns in world rugby on this year’s itinerary, and four of them away, Ireland were always going to lose matches.

They remain a good team – but that still remains the case.

France were brilliant, in terms of preparation, tactics and execution, but as good as les bleus were, there will have been plenty of honest self-assessment by management and playing staff alike at what was a rare and forgivable bad day at the office, in terms of selection to a degree and, perhaps more to the point, preparation, tactics and execution.

Under the kind of pressure, both physical and on the scoreboard, which they hadn’t known since the All Blacks visited Croke Park 15 months previously, Ireland cracked, losing their defensive shape, succumbing to moments of ill-discipline and, in their agitation, making errors on the ball.

Perhaps the Ireland team and public alike have now seen more clearly than ever that staying at the top, and consistently winning when you are expected to, is so much harder than underdogging your way along to the odd triple crown, championship or Grand Slam.

Moving on to Twickenham, Kidney and co won’t be throwing the baby out with the bathwater just because of a first defeat in 13 matches. France can afford to select 67 players in 22 matches with one eye on the Coupe de Monde in part because they’ve a much broader base of players of Test potential, and also because they’re been relatively sated in the context of the RBS Six Nations, whereas winning the World Cup is their Holy Grail.

As last season’s overdue Grand Slam for the golden generation showed, Ireland had a few other boxes to tick first before moving on to such loftier ambitions. Ireland have also underachieved at World Cups through various generations but there remains a championship and Triple Crown to play for and, in the short-term, there is a need to avert a second successive defeat and to beat England.

After all, Ireland will also want to deny Martin Johnson’s team the kind of momentum they would gain from going three from three while leaving Ireland on one win from three.

THE WORLD CUP

A widely held theory is the primary focus for Ireland in 2010 was never winning another Grand Slam or even the Six Nations. Rather, it was to procure a first ever win over the All Blacks, or better still, a first win away to one of the Southern Hemisphere big three since 1979.

But why? To make them angry and get their dander up? Sure, beating New Zealand for the first time ever in November at the Aviva Stadium would be a notable box ticked that has hitherto remained empty, and remove one potentially damaging mental block before the next World Cup. But there’s also a danger that Ireland could overcook the core of the golden generation – if not an ageing team then one approaching its vintage.

Put another way, at the time of the next World Cup, Brian O’Driscoll will be 32, Gordon D’Arcy 31, Ronan O’Gara 34, Jerry Flannery 33, John Hayes 37, Donncha O’Callaghan 32, Paul O’Connell 31, David Wallace 35, Leo Cullen 33 and Paddy Wallace 32.

As things stand, between now and the next World Cup, the likes of O’Driscoll and O’Connell will have to negotiate their way through the rest of this Six Nations, the Heineken Cup knock-out stages, a summer tour to New Zealand and Australia, the renewal of another Magners League and Heineken Cup, the first-ever four-match November series at the Palindrome and possibly the most physically demanding schedule any northern European team could take on, not just South Africa and New Zealand, but for light relief those softies from Samoa and Argentina.

Following that, there is more Heineken Cup and Magners League, another Six Nations campaign and an intensive four-Test build-up is being mapped out for the 2011 World Cup incorporating two possible games against France and one each against Scotland and Wales.

The feeling has always lurked that, in terms of World Cup cycles, the 2007 tournament in France represented the golden generation’s optimum peak.

If Ireland weren’t to make a real splash for the first time ever at a World Cup when most of the aforementioned – including O’Driscoll, O’Connell and O’Gara – were in their late 20s, then when would they ever? Nevertheless, if O’Driscoll and co can reach the next World Cup in good nick, they could atone for ’03 and ’07. Whenever O’Driscoll retires, he will leave the biggest of all voids. But until that day comes, he and the rest need to be handled carefully.

Prior to winning the last World Cup, Jake White rested the core of his World Cup-winning side from the Springboks’ end-of-season three-match tour to the Northern Hemisphere – Percy Montgomery, Jacque Fourie, Fourie du Preez, Os du Randt, Victor Matfield. The team which was beaten 32-15 at Lansdowne Road by Ireland featured only six of their World Cup final XV: Bryan Habana (in an experimental outside centre role, François Steyn (who was then a 19-year-old making his debut on the left wing), captain John Smit, CJ van der Linde, Dannie Rossouw and Juan Smith. Interestingly, not one of them was in his 30s by the time of the World Cup final.

At the end of their recent November tour to Europe – compounded by an energy -sapping, travel-wearying itinerary – Springboks head coach Pieter de Villiers admitted it had been a mistake to bring the core of experienced players who had backboned the 2007 triumph and last summer’s Test series win over the Lions and Tri-Nations triumph. It is unlikely to be a mistake he or they will repeat next November – perhaps Ireland should follow suit.

SELECTION v ENGLAND

Enforced changes at fullback (Rob Kearney) and hooker (Jerry Flannery) will limit Kidney and company’s inclination to make too many other changes. Besides, this has not become a bad team overnight and the management will want to avoid any impression of panicking.

England’s ultra cautious tactics against Wales and especially Italy suggest they will continue to kick, kick and kick again which, bearing in mind how Kearney has flourished against the Springboks, suggests this would have been tailor-made for him.

The loss of Luke Fitzgerald is becoming more and more acute given his form, strength and well-being until he was injured against Australia and, with Geordan Murphy having only played 32 minutes in the last two weekends after a three-month absence, the options at fullback and in the back three are few. Ironically, Leinster and Munster have more options at fullback, with Isa Nacewa and Paul Warwick, than Ireland have.

Murphy, who knows the ground well, has big-game experience and was on the Ireland side to win there in ’06, would nevertheless need to start for Leicester this weekend and have a proverbial stormer for him to be recalled. Either Gordon D’Arcy or Tommy Bowe could conceivably be reconverted into their original position of fullback, but the anticipated kick-pong at Twickenham requires specialists in the back three.

Girvan Dempsey, as an experienced big-game player who was a match-winner there in ’04, wouldn’t let Ireland down and would catch and kick everything that came his way. But with building a squad for the World Cup in mind, the management are unlikely to further damage Keith Earls’ confidence. He began well on the wing in Paris, and even at fullback caught everything and countered pretty well. At least this time he will have ample preparation for the role.

A-la Dempsey and Murphy, Shane Horgan has the big-game experience and track record against England to merit serious consideration, all the more so as he is match fit and in good form. He would re-energise the squad and his usefulness at restarts and for offensive and defensive crosskicks would be another asset.

Whatever about the starting XV, it’s unlikely Ireland’s backline cover on the bench will be of similar ilk to Paris, where one injury forced three changes to the backline. So if Earls starts at fullback, then Andrew Trimble and Horgan could both find themselves in the 22 at Twickenham.

Ronan O’Gara received the ball 33 times in his near 70 minutes on the pitch, kicking seven times, running three times and passing 23 times. O’Driscoll took the first pass on the cutback but thereafter every single pass by O’Gara was to men outside him (nearly always to backs and 11 times to O’Driscoll).

It wasn’t until the 79th minute, when Jonathan Sexton passed inside to Rory Best, that Ireland’s first receiver used a runner on his inside shoulder. As pointed out by Liam Toland in these pages, whoever plays outhalf at Twickenham, be it O’Gara or Sexton, Ireland have to improve their work-rate off the ball to give their number ten more options than was the case in Paris.

Were there to be a change at 10 to continue the investment pre-World Cup in Sexton, then there’ll be an argument for promoting his Leinster half-back partners Eoin Reddan as well.

True, the service seemed to sharpen up when Reddan came on, but that can often be the case, and though O’Leary was a bit ragged off the base his physicality also looks tailor-made for an English game plan which also largely revolves around Danny Care popping the ball to one-off heavy artillery.

Best’s return ahead of schedule is now more welcome than ever and it oughtn’t to diminish Ireland’s set-pieces. There’s a school of thought that John Hayes might not reach 100 caps in Twickenham or if he does it will be off the bench.

Tom Court is improving all the while, offers more around the park and it comes as no surprise to hear some French clubs are interested in signing him. But Hayes remains the only tighthead at Heineken Cup level who is a regular starter.

Ireland would benefit from enlarged, 23-man match-day squads more than anyone else, for they could then incorporate a specialist loosehead and specialist tighthead on the bench. The expectation is this ruling will be expanded to Test rugby next year, in time for the World Cup. Were it in existence now, it’s conceivable Marcus Horan and Tony Buckley would be on the bench.

As it is, Court owes his place in the squad to notionally covering both sides. But he remains a loosehead who can pack down at tighthead in an emergency. His 12 starts for Ulster this season have all been at loosehead.

With Donncha O’Callaghan not playing for Munster this weekend, apart from hooker the pack could stay the same. It remains to be seen how they all go in the Magners League this weekend, especially the likes of Trimble and Horgan, but the 22 could read something like:

Earls, Bowe, O'Driscoll, D'Arcy, Trimble; Sexton, O'Leary; Healy, Best, Hayes; Cullen, O'Connell; Ferris, Wallace, Heaslip. Replacements: Cronin, Court, Ryan, O'Brien, Reddan, O'Gara, Horgan.