Spanish skies may have wept for Manchester United yesterday but it will be a major surprise should Valencia manage to rain hard enough on United's parade this evening to deny them a place in the Champions League quarter-finals as winners of their second-round group.
Having ensured a place in the last eight by playing inspired football to beat Fiorentina 3-1 at Old Trafford last Wednesday, Alex Ferguson's European champions now have only to avoid defeat by three goals or more to retain their lead in Group B and steer clear of the other top teams - Barcelona, Bayern Munich and possibly Chelsea - in Friday's draw.
Under the tournament rules the group winners meet runnersup in the next stage but cannot play opponents from the same group. This means that, assuming all continues to go well for the two English teams, United will meet Porto, Sparta Prague, Lazio, Feyenoord, Real Madrid or Dynamo Kiev for a semi-final place.
First, however, Ferguson's side must address the task of denying Valencia the kind of start which would spark serious hopes of overtaking United to win the group. The fact that Valencia have only to draw to go through in second place may well curb Spanish passions.
Fiorentina, by beating Marseille, could still finish level with Hector Cuper's team on 10 points but then the results between the two - Valencia winning 2-0 compared to the Italian team's 1-0 - would keep the Spanish side in second place.
"We've got to ensure we don't make mistakes against a team with a good home record," said Ferguson. "Winning the group is important to us. It means avoiding Barcelona and Bayern in the quarter-finals and, if we could meet Chelsea in the final, what a marvellous fillip for English football that would be."
Valencia at the Mestalla stadium are likely to prove a rather tougher prospect than the side which lost feebly 3-0 at Old Trafford in December. Adrian Ilie, their outstanding Romanian striker who missed that game through injury, will be playing up front alongside the Argentinean Claudio Lopez with Francisco Farinos and Gerard challenging Roy Keane's attempts to dominate the midfield.
Neither David Beckham, suspended for this game, nor Ryan Giggs, resting a tweaked hamstring, travelled out yesterday. Ferguson intimated that Ole Gunnar Solskjaer or Quinton Fortune would play on the left flank. This could mean Paul Scholes switching to the right of midfield with Nicky Butt recalled in the centre alongside Keane.
Giggs' injury is not serious and Ferguson might have risked him if United had needed three points, but he is thankful he left him in Manchester after seeing Valencia's almost waterlogged pitch.
"If we had needed to win to qualify I would probably have brought Giggs, but I've seen the rain and the pitch is going to be soft so I'm glad I didn't bring him," he said. "But he should be available for Saturday."
Valencia has been drenched by heavy downpours over the weekend and United curtailed their normal one-hour training session to just 30 minutes last night because there was so much surface water on the pitch.
The topic of Ferguson's successor as United manager cropped up again yesterday with Ferguson talking down Barcelona coach Louis Van Gaal's chances of taking his place when he retires in June 2002.
"I think what you will find in the next two years is all rumour and speculation," said Ferguson. "All sorts of names will be bandied about and it's just speculation at the moment as to who's going to replace me. I don't think there's any foundation in the story you read at the weekend."
Ferguson himself fuelled the speculation at the weekend by suggesting that Leeds manager David O'Leary would be a great replacement for him.
Valencia (probable): Canizares; Angloma, Pellegrino, Djukic, Carboni; Angulo, Farinos, Gerard, Kily Gonzalez; C Lopez, Ilie.
Manchester United (probable): Bosnich; G Neville, Berg, Stam, Irwin; Scholes, Keane, Butt, Solskjaer or Fortune; Cole, Yorke.
