RUGBY: Northampton v UlsterULSTER MUST travel in expectation not hope to Milton Keynes if they are to defy the formbook. Wishing or wanting alone will not suffice; it must be infused with a genuine belief. A teak-tough mental veneer will be as valuable as the requisite physical attributes.
Northampton won’t carry a scintilla of doubt, convinced they have arrested a mid-season wobble – six defeats in seven matches – with three consecutive victories in the English Premiership. Fortified by their returning England contingent, they have constituted the swagger of pre-Christmas displays.
The English club qualified from the pool stages of as number one seeds, on foot of a blemish free run of six wins. They have swapped their traditional citadel, Franklin’s Gardens, for the 21,500-capacity Stadium:mk. Ulster should find the venue less claustrophobic in terms of the proximity of the supporters to the pitch; less raucous too in terms of an invasive din.
Coach Brian McLaughlin has plumped for experience and he’ll look to Andrew Trimble, Paddy Wallace, Ruan Pienaar, captain Rory Best and Johann Muller to set the tone. That starts and ends with the collisions at set-piece, breakdown and tackling.
The Saints, an oxymoron when referenced to their playing style, look to dominate opponents physically, bashing through the gain-line before looking to exploit those holes with quick ruck ball to release their fleet-footed back three of Ben Foden, Chris Ashton and the underrated Paul Diggin.
James Downey is an integral part of central casting in realising front-foot possession, so too Roger Wilson, captain Dylan Hartley, the colossal Soane Tonga’uiha, Brian Mujati and the athletic Courtney Lawes. Flanker Tom Wood was a stand-out player for England in the Six Nations while Phil Dowson’s work-rate makes him a prized performer.
Northampton’s scrum is a formidable weapon. Given French referee Romain Poite is in charge, it is an area where Ulster can’t afford the perception of being second best. The return of BJ Botha is timely but it will require a huge effort.
Ulster must contest the Northampton throw more often than not because the Saints possess a very powerful maul and allowing them a comfortable platform would be ruinous. That’s only half the battle for the visitors as securing their own ball will be no mere bagatelle.
Northampton will target Ian Humphreys; Ulster will try to protect their creative spark. If the outhalf is the fulcrum of the Irish province’s attack, then young centre Nevin Spence is a willing acolyte. He’s excelled all season, particularly in punching holes. If he can get his hands free in the tackle or beat the initial defender Ulster have the pace and power on the wings to make it a definitive breach in scoring terms. Adam D’Arcy offers a clever footballing presence on the ball but Stephen Ferris is a huge loss.
The visitors’ kicking game will have to be precise, focusing on being able to contest the high ball because to punt indiscriminately courts calamity if the Northampton back three are afforded time and space. Ulster will want to try to play an offloading game, getting Pedrie Wannenburg, Chris Henry, Robbie Diack, Tom Court and Dan Touhy carrying while maintaining a high tempo.
The Saints are an aggressive counter-rucking team and Ulster don’t want to involve themselves in an arm wrestle at the breakdown. If Ulster wish to draw on inspiration from previous outings in the tournament then they might dwell on the bloodymindedness of their victory over Biarritz in Belfast or the courage of their freewheeling patterns in Bath.
A good start tomorrow is a non-negotiable prerequisite, for only then can they start to sow the seeds of doubt for the home side.
If Northampton quickly establish a rhythm then the musical accompaniment is likely to be the Saints go marching in . . . to the semi-finals.
NORTHAMPTON: B Foden: C Ashton, J Clarke, J Downey, P Diggin; S Myler, L Dickson; S Tonga'uiha, D Hartley (capt), B Mujati; C Lawes, C Day; P Dowson, T Wood, R Wilson. Replacements: B Sharman, A Waller, T Mercey, M Sorenson, C Clark, S Commins, S Geraghty, B Reihana.
ULSTER: A D'Arcy; A Trimble, N Spence, P Wallace, S Danielli; I Humphreys, R Pienaar; T Court, R Best (capt), BJ Botha; J Muller, D Tuohy; R Diack, C Henry, P Wannenburg. Replacements: A Kyriacou, P McAllister, B Young, T Barker, W Faloon, P Marshall, I Whitten, C Gilroy.
Referee: Romain Poite (France).
Verdict: Northampton
