Ulster may still say 'no' to change

The developments in the political and cultural life of this place provide the perfect incentive for all you high-livers to start reassessing your dedicated regime of maximum hedonism and minimum exercise. For there can be no greater incentive to lead a long and full life than the notion of being alive in 50 years or so when the official papers documenting the behind-the-scenes goings-on of these momentous times are made available for public consumption. An insight into all the choreography and the consultations would be truly fascinating.

As would an indication of the extent to which the GAA has been included in the current political loop. The announcement that the IRA had begun the process of decommissioning last week was clearly the culmination of a long, involved process of negotiations and discussion. The extent to which those at the highest level of the GAA were given signals as to the sea-change that was about to occur may remain forever unknown, but there are interesting little indications that they were not exactly in the dark about what was happening.

One reason for that is the public position with regard to Rule 21 to which the GAA has been yoked since the special Congress on the issue three years ago. The most pertinent part of the association's public pronouncement then was its intention "to delete Rule 21 from its official guide when the effective steps are taken to implement the amended structures and policing arrangements envisaged in the British-Irish peace agreement".

One reading of this leans towards the conclusion that decommissioning, or the absence of it, played no part in the reassessment of Rule 21 announced last weekend. The reference to the "amended structures and policing arrangements", relates clearly to the changes to the RUC and the establishment of the Police Board, both of which have been in place for some weeks now. If the GAA had been so minded it would have reviewed its position vis-α-vis Rule 21 there and then.

But the crucial element to be factored in to any consideration of those policing changes was Sinn FΘin's refusal to nominate members to the Police Board. Without the party's involvement the new police force would not necessarily have the credibility needed to sell it to the nationalist community, and more particularly to the GAA rank and file. Even though the GAA could see everything that it required as a pre-condition for deletion of Rule 21 slotting into place, its hands were still tied by Sinn FΘin's refusal to join in the party.

And yet it appears the waters have been tested already and certainly before last Saturday's Central Council announcement. A GAA statement said Seβn McCague had been involved in "a consultancy process on the rule which began last August".

How intensive or involved this process has been is not known, but it is obvious that McCague was trying to avoid the fate of his predecessor, Joe McDonagh, by blazing a trail towards the promised land without first having prepared his constituency for the journey.

A Police Board without Sinn FΘin was clearly adjudged by McCague and the GAA to be no basis on which to proceed towards deletion of Rule 21. But they have decided those changes to policing along with IRA decommissioning and the demilitarisation that has followed have all forced the GAA's hand. To be seen not to be acting now on Rule 21 would leave the association open to charges of intransigence and obduracy.

All of which tends to suggest that deletion may not be the done deal that most commentators have tended to suggest in the days since the announcement of next month's special Congress. Much store has been placed on McCague's astuteness and reluctance to put Rule 21 up for discussion only to see it retained after a controversial vote.

But it may also be that in the context of everything that was happening politically around the GAA, it was left with little option but to move now even though the two-thirds majority required for deletion may not yet be guaranteed.

As before, it is likely that Ulster will provide the lead and there will be involved discussion of the topic in the weeks ahead. Interestingly, votes were taken in a number of clubs even before last Saturday's announcement, another indication that change has been in the offing for a while. The results of those deliberations will not have made happy reading for the GAA leadership. Members of Crossmaglen GFC voted unanimously last Thursday night to retain the rule.

Change may be in the air, but it has not blown away all the mistrust and antagonism that was allowed to build up over 30 years of political violence. Crossmaglen GFC and its members have had more cause than most to retain a healthy degree of scepticism about political toing and froing here as they fought a long battle for the return of the parts of their pitch occupied by a British army base. And even now, one official interviewed at the start of this week continued to make negative noises about the deletion of Rule 21. What difference, he said, would it make if it stayed for another year so that everyone could have a chance to see what developed?

The practicalities of the members of every club in Ulster meeting en bloc in this way to mandate a position for their officials to take to county board level are tortuous and it is difficult to see how that could happen in every situation. This might be the saving grace for those in favour of deletion of Rule 21.

Ultimately it may come down to the very simple question of perception. On the basis that a new police service is definitely going to replace the RUC, can the GAA seriously countenance a situation where young nationalists who decide to join up at the same time are excluded from playing football and hurling? That is surely the way those in favour of change will subtly colour the debate.

One final thought. Could it be that Sinn FΘin is waiting for the GAA to move on Rule 21 as a precursor to its signing up to the new Police Board and giving its approval, tacit or otherwise, to the new service? Maybe we'll have to wait 50 years to find out the answer to that one.