Traditional powers beat out a familiar rhythm

Five years after the official commencement of hurling's new Golden Age, things are getting a bit tarnished. It's not simply that the traditional counties came good - as they were always going to - but there are alarming signs of decline amongst the other contenders.

It's worth remembering that, six years ago, the All-Ireland looked certain to end up in Cork, Tipperary, Kilkenny or Galway. In fact, it wasn't to be until last year that any of them emerged from the championship. This year there is a similar feel to the environment, but without the apparent potential for surprise which existed in 1994.

Admittedly no one saw it coming then, so such twists and turns to the narrative may again be possible. There is, however, a difference. Now, the glass ceiling has been shattered. The events of recent years have greatly diminished the chances of genuine contenders being out there unnoticed.

The coincidence of the last five years has been the simultaneous emergence of counties so long in the shadows. Clare, Wexford, Limerick and Waterford, in that order, have enjoyed their best years in decades and have been dwelt on as serious contenders since their re-emergence.

That all four are experiencing problems of one sort or another is what underpins the status of the big three plus Galway (also perennial challengers in modern hurling). It is natural that teams will wax and wane and to an extent that is what is happening.

Last year Cork completed a long and at times traumatic reconstruction programme by winning the All-Ireland. Tipperary are embarked on a similar course. Others are facing critical years.

Clare have to dispute the notion that they are in decline, however slow and fiercely contested, whereas Waterford have to demonstrate that they learned enough on their journey two years ago to be able to take their talented but slightly stretched collective one or two steps further.

Limerick are in the bona fide throes of rebuilding, with Eamonn Cregan's decisive policy of introducing new faces more of an investment in the future than a guarantee of short-term gain.

So in Munster, there is at least a sense of coming and going, of a province in natural transition.

But Leinster is in crisis. It has been well-flagged in advance but is now here. Kilkenny won six of the last decade's Leinster under-21 titles and every single one of the minors. It should be no great surprise that the county's seniors look to have the run of the province for the foreseeable future.

The abiding problem for both Wexford and Offaly is that influential older players aren't being replaced or even challenged for their places. Without ruling out last-stand heroics this summer, it's safe to say that the future is limited.

The history of hurling in the province has been one of Kilkenny against someone else drawn from a rota of competitors which changed every couple of decades or so. It's hard to tell which county in the near future will fulfil that role.

Offaly argue - as they must with so little recent under-age success - that a county doesn't need to win silverware at under-age to produce the requisite one or two decent players per year. That is true, and hurlers like Simon Whelahan and Paudie Mulhare have proved the point.

But the fact remains that Offaly's senior successes in the 1990s were almost completely built on the accomplished minor teams of the late 1980s. Piecemeal regeneration is all very well, but it doesn't happen quickly enough to keep a county in business.

Dublin and Laois would appear as far away as ever from being able to mount a consistent challenge to the big counties. If Pat Critchley's return has boosted morale in Laois, Dublin's sundry setbacks look to have immeasurably lowered theirs.

There is a general belief that Galway hurling is at last on the mend. Whereas the brittle temperament which has bedevilled the county hasn't yet proved itself repaired, there is enough flair and organisation in the team, as well as a reasonably settled selection policy, to suggest that this is the year the county can break its duck in the quarterfinals.

Evidence of the failure of the game to spread can be seen in Roscommon's withdrawal from the Connacht championship. After five years providing fodder for Galway in the name of a provincial championship, they faced realities last week and called a halt. Those years haven't brought any improvement in the county's fortunes, and in fact have coincided with Galway's worst championship spell in over 25 years.

In the north, there is a growing belief that Derry can round off their recent improvements by taking Antrim in the Ulster final. They nearly did it last year, and after a season, albeit of struggle, in Division One, they may have adjusted sufficiently to give substance to such optimism.

To an extent, equating vibrancy with success for counties unused to it is an incorrect gauge. It shouldn't really matter who wins provincial titles and All-Irelands as long as the championships are fundamentally competitive. That much seems guaranteed for this year at least. And we can worry about the future later.