The closer you get to the prospect of a shock result, the more reservations occur. Tomorrow's Guinness Munster hurling semi-final between Tipperary and Waterford at Pairc Ui Chaoimh has been shimmering before the public for the last couple of months as a live possibility for an upset in the hurling championship.

In truth, it wouldn't be much of a surprise. When the sides met in the National League in March, Waterford won comfortably and only late goals put a respectable gloss on the scoreline from a Tipperary perspective. Since then Waterford have evolved into a unit carrying the county's best championship prospects in years.

They show a couple of changes from the Thurles league encounter but Tipperary show more. Waterford came close to winning the league final last month but didn't take their chances whereas Cork did. Their opponents have been quiet in recent times - apart from the odd buzz of discontent picked up around the place.

In summary, it's true that if Waterford harbour any notions of beating Tipperary in the championship, they won't get a better chance than tomorrow. This may sound uncomfortably similar to the noises being made before Dublin's ill-fated tilt at Kilkenny six days ago but Waterford have rather more done than Dublin.

Manager Gerald McCarthy sticks with the side which beat Kerry in unexpectedly unemphatic fashion. Former Tipperary hurler Brian Flannery accordingly faces his old county for the first time at championship level.

Len Gaynor's team shows two fairly inexperienced lines. The full forwards aren't really experimental as Eugene O'Neill and Liam Cahill, for all their youth, both have All-Ireland final goals to their credit from last year. Joining them is Bunny Kennedy, who has impressed during the league.

The half back line, however, prompts reservations because of the old Tipperary problem at centre back. Aidan Butler gets the nod for this with very little to suggest that he's ready to take on the role in Conor Gleeson's absence. Playing on the prodigiously talented Ken McGrath imposes further strain on Butler. Behind him Michael Ryan moves in at full back after a lifetime in the corner and the progress of this conversion will be watched anxiously.

These novel selections strengthen a perception of a team still searching around for its best line-up. Last year, thanks to the new championship format, Tipperary got a second chance to strengthen their team and Gaynor made a number of improvements which resulted in a serious challenge for the All-Ireland.

This time, it's more problematic as the team they face - unlike Limerick last year - are improving and possess rising self-confidence. Accordingly, it may seem perverse after all the foregoing to side with Tipperary but there are a couple of salient points to be made. First, at this level of championship when the stakes are high - the winners are guaranteed championship hurling nearly into August - it's only reasonable to look at who possesses the greater number of hurlers with experience of big-day achievement.

With that in mind, Waterford's display in the league final comes under the microscope. Whereas the half backs played up to their reputation, the full back line was stretched and got into trouble. Kennedy, O'Neill and Cahill are scorers and will exploit chances gifted to them.

It was in attack that the league final was lost and the burden of that responsibility rested with the heroes of the semi-final, McGrath and Paul Flynn. It would be strange if that inability to take chances didn't have some impact on Waterford and create at least the possibility of self-doubt.

In those circumstances, the more tested Tipperary team, particularly their half forward line, which must subdue the FramptonHartley-Greene menace, have more of a track record and consequently more of a chance to make next month's final.

Tipperary: B Cummins; P Shelly, M Ryan, L Sheedy; B Horgan, A Butler, Conal Bonner; Colm Bonner, T Dunne; L McGrath, D Ryan, J Leahy; L Cahill, E O'Neill, M Kennedy.

Waterford: B Landers; T Feeney, S Cullinane, B Flannery; S Frampton, F Hartley, B Greene; T Browne, P Queally; D Shanahan, K McGrath, D Bennett; B O'Sullivan, A Kirwan, P Flynn.