This is a doomsday scenario, and nobody really believes it could happen in Ireland. Then again, no one thought it would happen in Japan either, where the ultimate status symbol used to be membership of a golf club, but where the prices for such memberships are currently at their lowest point in 19 years.

Take the story of Edward Chmura, a Japanese-based translator. Back in 1985, he paid three million yen - equivalent to approximately £22,000 - to join Yaita Country Club, 75 miles north of Tokyo.

Today, his membership is worth just 300,000 yen, or £2,200, a tenth of what he paid initially. He is not alone. In fact, the average price for membership at 157 major clubs around Tokyo has fallen 86 per cent since the high of 1990, according to the Kanto Golf Memberships Dealers Association.

The bubble has burst in Japan, but here, in another golf-addicted country, people seem intent on blowing as much hot air - and hard cash - into the bubble as it will take. In line with the fattened Celtic Tiger, the cost of memberships, or preferential shares, have increased over the past decade.

And if you happen to live in south Dublin and want to join a golf club, then the blunt message is to fork out the big bucks or get used to travelling, because this is the part of the country where the price explosion is most evident.

If the old economic theory of supply and demand was to provide a simple explanation for what has happened in this particular neck of the woods, then maybe we could all nod our heads in some sort of understanding, for there is certainly a dearth of new courses on land where it makes more sense to develop housing or business parks.

But it seems to be more than that.

Although it is near impossible to get into one of the traditional members' clubs in the south city, at least while you're still able to swing a club, such are the typical waiting periods, even the "have money, will join" philosophy doesn't always work out when it comes to seeking entry to one of the new facilities that have sprung up in north Wicklow to facilitate those southsiders in search of golfing heaven and also, it seems, some investment opportunity at the same time.

The two best examples are Powerscourt and Glen of the Downs, which are not members clubs, but rather companies with preferential shares. The two courses were designed and built to cater for the top-end of the market, but the sheer scale of interest took even deep-rooted cynics in the golf industry by surprise.

In 1994, the first tranche of shares in Powerscourt were offered at £2,500. Not surprisingly, they were snapped up. Shares were then offered in further stages, eventually finishing at £18,000. All 440 preference shares were sold within three years. But the interest didn't stop there, and a waiting list was established for those interested in buying should a share be returned for whatever reason.

Now, a second 18-hole course at Powerscourt is being developed and the shareholding in the company has been increased by 300, with the first 100 shares being offered to existing preference shareholds (members) for their family to buy at £20,000 each with the balance being offered to those on the waiting list - of which there are 360 - at £25,000. The expectation is that all the shares will be sold within six months.

Down the N11 at Glen of the Downs, the story's similar. The shareholding was released in 1996 at £2,000 - but each subsequent release saw an increase, slow at first, in price to four, then five, then eight, then 12, 18, 22 and, finally, £25,000 for the last tranche of the 650 shares.

The volume of money is just extraordinary. Especially so in that those who threw in their lot with Glen of the Downs did so without a permanent clubhouse, which is only now being developed after planning problems.

What the developers of Glen of the Downs did do, however, was to ensure that the course was designed and maintained to an exceptionally high quality which reflected their desire to have a facility at the top end of the market. Obviously, the punters liked what they saw and the construction - at last - of the clubhouse will just be the icing on the cake.

This phenomenon of redeemable shares spiralling upwards is mainly evident in south Dublin/north Wicklow. Certainly, it has not been replicated north of the Liffey, although that has much to do with a greater availability of new courses in the Fingal area.

Certainly, in terms of value for money, those in north Dublin - and those southsiders willing to make the trip - have not had to dig as deep in their pockets.

For instance, a transferable share membership is on offer at Turvey in Donabate for £3,600: That is a seven-day membership, which includes the first annual subscription, a modern clubhouse and no waiting list to contend with.

Golfers on the northside are better served in terms of pay-to-play facilities that have the added attraction of club attachments which are affiliated to the Golfing Union of Ireland. Deerpark in Howth set this trend, but Elmgreen near Blanchardstown, the Christy O'Connor Club based at Sillogue in Ballymun and Hollystown near Mulhuddart now all offer these services.

It is only in this area, however, that a north-south divide is apparent. In terms of the traditional members' clubs, however, it is as difficult to gain admittance as ever, no matter which side of the river a prospective member lives on. In virtually every case, the need to serve time as a pavilion member first, or even a lengthy time on the waiting list, applies.

Many of these traditional clubs in the city have, quite simply, reached saturation point. "The only time vacancies occur is when members leave the area, the country or, unfortunately, die," says Denis Peacock, secretary-manager at Dun Laoghaire Golf Club.

In fact, the only way into most traditional clubs is due to natural wastage and typical waiting times can often take the best part of a decade to achieve full membership. Many traditional clubs do sympathise with the plight of people who wish to join, and Woodbrook Golf Club has started an interesting programme devised at easing this waiting time.

The present wait for five-day membership at Woodbrook is four to five years, with a further two to three years wait for full membership. In an attempt to combat this wait, however, this year the club has started a social membership that includes 10 rounds of golf at reduced rate included in the annual fee.

Even though the huge boom in golf in the past decade can be attributed to the advent of new courses, whether they be proprietary clubs or those offering redeemable shares, there remains a huge attraction with the traditional member clubs, hence the willingness for golfers to endure long waits to gain entry to their preferred clubs. "The demand, from what I can judge, is as strong as ever," says Ann McNiece at Howth Golf Club.

The normal route is to join as a pavilion member, and it usually helps to show your face around the premises frequently, so that, when the time comes for election of members, you would be construed as someone who really wants to be part of the club. "We don't maintain a waiting list, but prospective members are invited to apply for membership in October of each year. Normally, persons wishing to join the club will first become pavilion members and then progress to five day and then full membership. The length of time that it takes to become a full member of the club naturally will vary," says John McCormack, secretary-manager at Malahide Golf Club.

It could take approximately seven years as a pavilion member at somewhere like Castle Golf Club before the opportunity would arise to join as a playing member. On the opposite side of the city, at Royal Dublin Golf Club, a candidate could expect to serve in pavilion membership for a period from two to four years before becoming eligible to apply for five-day.

The demand to join a links course is particularly strong, not just in the Dublin area, but across the country. Membership of Ballybunion Golf Club is currently closed. "We have files and files of applications," says Jim McKenna. If membership is opened, then they will only be taking in five to 10 members at a time.

There is an indefinite waiting period at Lahinch Golf Club, where membership has been closed for the past three years, and at Donegal Golf Club in Murvagh, nobody from outside the local area has been admitted in six years.

The waiting list phenomenon isn't just confined to the greater urban areas. At Oughterard, for instance, there are in excess of 350 people on the club's waiting list - 300 men, 150 women - and most have absolutely no chance of attaining membership. Priority is given to local residents and to families of existing members, with some sympathy towards golfers whose careers have displaced them from their home clubs, but "absolutely no consideration is given to existing members of neighbouring clubs".

While the lure of joining a traditional club is strong, and location as much as anything determines whether it is possible, there is a sharp contrast between the sort of entrance fees that many members' clubs expect and those which many of the newer projects are achieving.

Although it would take three or four years to earn membership of Tramore Golf Club, the entrance fee is currently £1,296 for men and £780 for women. In Oughterard, the entrance fee is £1,823 (including annual subscription and levy), while examples in the Dublin area show that the entrance fee at Malahide is £5,000 for five-day and £7,000 for full membership, £7,750 upon entrance at Royal Dublin and £8,000 at Castle, all of which appear extremely reasonable compared with some of the five-digit sums expected elsewhere.

The difference between the traditional members clubs and many of the new courses is that entrance money to a members' club can't be recouped. In many of the other newer schemes, prospective members are looking on joining as an investment, as well as an opportunity to play golf on courses which they like.

A case of different strokes for different folks, perhaps.