Six Nations Overview:The autumn tests showed the southern hemisphere to be pulling clear of the north. Now it's catch-up time, and the Six Nations is the last chance for nations to perform in advance of September's World Cup in New Zealand, writes Gerry Thornley
THE OLDEST international rugby tournament in the world is upon us again. As a competition, it’s a standalone event with a unique place in the game; always worth winning, always worth shouting about, always worth watching. Yet life moves on and, however irritating it might be, there’s no getting away from it; as the 2011 RBS Six Nations comes at the end of a four-year World Cup cycle, it will be judged in part by the impending events in New Zealand later this year.
What’s more, each of the Six Nations in question and the tournament itself has some catching up to do, beginning now. That much was made evident by last summer’s Tri Nations, and was re-enforced by the November test series. The Tri Nations may not have the variety, history or tradition of its northern counterpart, but the 2010 tournament almost certainly marked something of a watershed for the game.
This was the brand of rugby which the IRB law amendments were designed to achieve. In response to the increasing proliferation of kick-pong, which itself was a direct result of the difficulties in recycling the ball and the limited scope for counter-attacking, the IRB decreed that the tackler had to release the ball carrier before contesting, and also reduced the time afforded defending players to contest possession.
Ruck ball became quicker, turnovers were reduced and the all-dominant poaching number sevens had their power reduced. It was no longer too risky to run the ball in your own half. Furthermore, restrictions placed on players in front of the kicker meant that strategically placed loiterers would be penalised rather than preventing the scope for counter-attacking.
The southern hemisphere, given a quicker heads-up, reacted more sharply and, after a three-month run at things in the Super 14, accordingly tries were almost doubled from the 2009 Tri Nations (27) to 52 in the nine matches last year. At a ratio of 5.8 per match this was the second highest average in the competition’s 15-year history. By contrast, in the 2010 Six Nations, there were 48 tries, at an average of 3.2 per game.
Just as tellingly, statistics released by the International Rugby Board (IRB) showed that teams dramatically reduced the number of kicks out of hand from a total of 60 in 2009 to just 37 per game in 2010. The average number of passes per match was up 35 per cent and the ball was in play seven per cent more than in 2009.
No matter the early Saturday morning kick-offs, every match was unmissable. The All Blacks are the most ambitious and skilful, from one to XV, of any team in the world and duly led the way, winning all six matches and scoring 22 tries, and the next best were the Wallabies, who continued their upward curve in November.
The Springboks’ kicking, set-piece, all-power game was made to look a little dated, but this cannot all be attributed to the law amendments, for it was as much the All Blacks and the Wallabies devising ways of overcoming the Boks’ strengths by playing to their own.
In any event, last November, the three southern superpowers underlined their positions as the leading three rugby teams on the planet when Tri Nations teams won 10 of their dozen matches away to teams from the Six Nations. In those dozen games the try count was 39-15 to the Tri Nations. This was at the end of their long seasons, and early in the European campaign.
And it was the brand of rugby as well, the way the All Blacks and Wallabies explored and found the most priceless commodity of all on a rugby pitch – space – working off the ball whether to counter from anywhere on the pitch or provide outlets to supporting runners. It was also all done with such clarity. The autumn showed the south to be, if anything, pulling clear of the north.
Cue catch-up time.
Those law amendments landed like a grenade in the middle of last year’s Six Nations, which seemed to suggest that the IRB prioritised the Super 14 over the oldest international tournament in the world, but there are no excuses this time. European rugby has long since become accustomed to them.
Admittedly, it helps that the elite is more concentrated in the southern hemisphere, in the Tri Nations and Super 14. And the majority of the best referees are now concentrated in the southern hemisphere, and South Africa especially.
By contrast, the European game is spread out over the Magners League, Guinness Premiership, Top 14, Heineken Cup and Six Nations. Standards of refereeing vary wildly across six countries. It is partly Ireland’s misfortune that most of the very good ones are Irish, and therefore Irish teams rarely experience the likes of Alain Rolland. Scots and Welsh are mostly their lot in league matches (not one Scot or Italian has been given a Six Nations game, nor is one likely to come the World Cup). But there are many, across the six countries, who are not up to the task, who do not enforce the law amendments consistently and who seem to think they are meant to be the centre of attention. Some of the strutting poseurs in France, for example, beggar belief, though it’s not exclusively a French problem.
If there isn’t an upturn in the try quotient and entertainment value in the forthcoming Six Nations, one ventures that the call for a bonus point system à la the Tri Nations and every other major tournament in the world will intensify. In some respects it would be a shame, for it could dilute what makes the Six Nations so unique; each game carrying the same value, the winning of a Grand Slam or championship. Conceivably, though unlikely, a team could win a Slam but finish second in the championship.
Using the November tests as a yardstick, there would appear to be no stand-out team. Indeed, until a few short weeks ago, there was still a strong case for believing Ireland could at least emulate the championship triumph of two years ago – only the second since 1985 – whatever about the Grand Slam. As in 2009, and 1985 for that matter, it is the bi-annual itinerary which has the big two of France and England coming to Dublin and therefore, in theory, gives Ireland its best shot at glory.
The game has moved on from then, and Ireland have sought to move on with it, not always successfully. But there remains a core of high achieving, experienced and successful players, with the same coaching ticket as two years ago, and Leinster have been as good as anything in Europe this season.
England, it’s true, appear to be a coming force under Martin Johnson, who is far too shrewd a rugby man not to have a positive effect and not to understand some of the basic concepts in the evolution of a team. A core of good young players are coming through in the likes of the Leicester scrum-half Ben Youngs, seriously quick, and Northampton full-back Ben Foden.
They had the best autumn, and their win over Australia was the high point of the European effort in November. Even so, as is their wont, the English media over- reacted to that one win, and no try in history has been afforded such repeated viewing as that length-of-the-pitch effort by Chris Ashton. They were, perhaps, more competitive than Ireland, Wales or Scotland against the All Blacks, but they struggled every bit as much as others to put away Samoa, and were whupped worst of all by the Springboks. They were better, but they weren’t exceptional.
Toby Flood is no Dan Carter, but then again he’s no Dan Cipriani, Shane Geraghty or Ryan Lamb either. As a Leciester out-half he knows how to manage a game. Their 10-12-13 axis, which will still most likely include Mike Tindall, is workmanlike.
They’ve been hit by injuries to a number of players, mostly focusing on their back-row, such as captain Lewis Moody, Tom Cort and Courtney Lawes. Yet, as befits the biggest rugby nation in Europe with the biggest resources, they have others to fill the voids, be it Nick Easter, Joe Worsely or whomever. And with Dan Cole emerging as a young test tight-head of real substance, as always their pack will be strong and well-drilled.
They’re entitled to start favourites, and if they avail of Wales’ front-row crisis and lack of confidence to win in Cardiff in their pivotal Friday night opener, they have a run of three successive home games against Italy, France and Scotland. They could well come to Dublin on the final Saturday looking for a Slam.
The Welsh would indeed be far better equipped to hobble the Sweet Chariot if they hadn’t forgotten how to beat frontline opposition and Sod’s Law hadn’t sidelined their two world-class props, loosehead Gethin Jenkins and tight-head Adam Jones. Some key personnel are also simply past their best, Lee Byrne being a case in point, while Martyn Williams didn’t even make their Six Nations squad.
Their regions had a horrid Heineken Cup campaign, not providing one quarter-finalist in either competition, and the Warren Gatland ticket looks to have a real challenge on its hands to re-energise the Slam winners of three seasons ago.
France should, therefore, be England’s main threat except that, more than ever, they really are an enigma wrapped in a riddle. They could be anything and under Marc Lièvremont truly have been, be it Grand Slam winners last year and whipping boys for South Africa, Argentina and, most embarrassingly of all, the Wallabies last time out. But there’s talent aplenty, and with a renewed focus and desire to atone in front of their critical public, will probably arrive in Dublin on the second weekend with a home win under their belts against the Scots.
The Scots continue to make strides under Andy Robinson. They have excellent set-pieces, a good defence, a solid kicking game and place-kicking – the building blocks for any good team. They also have an excellent back-row, and in Bath’s Jack Cuthbert and Northampton’s Joe Ansbro may even have discovered a cutting edge.
Were the game being played under the old laws they’d be even better placed. But there appears to be a glass ceiling above them in the art of scoring tries, although as they showed in Croke Park last season they will probably take scalps and do have Wales, Ireland and Italy at home.
The new laws would appear to hurt Italy most of all, given it has diluted their mauling, kicking and pick-and-go game, for half-back remains a crippling problem. But they will bring all those traditional virtues to the party, including a potent scrum, which seriously unhinged the Wallabies last November, and buckets of Italian fervour – not least first up when Ireland come calling.
Were it not for the rash of injuries which afflicted Ireland – Sod’s Law decreeing they lost five outside backs with 208 caps and 69 test tries between them – they’d have been better equipped to cope with that opening assignment and the visit of France a week later. As a result, Ireland look altogether more vulnerable.
Down to the bare bones in the back three especially, they will at least be energised by the emergence of relatively ‘new’ players in the likes of Mike Ross and Sean O’Brien – right now the most dynamic forward in Europe. If they can somehow paper over the cracks Ireland can remain in contention for at least the title entering that final Super Saturday and the visit of England.
Whatever happens though, it would be comforting if it was something of a classic 2011 Six Nations. Why, coming in a World Cup year, the smug folk south of the equator might even take more of a peek this time. So it would be nice to put on a bit of a show.
