Spain pack too much of a punch to be left wanting

AS HE faced the media for the last time before tomorrow’s World Cup final, Dutch coach Bert van Marwijk made an interesting remark. His suggestion that a victory for Spain, based as they are around a Barcelona club that has been influenced heavily down the years by some of his countrymen, would mean at least a little reflected credit for the Dutch, had the ring of an insurance policy about it.

It’s hardly likely that van Marwijk or his players actually expect the European champions to become the first team in more than three and a half decades to add the world title to that particular continental one, but it doesn’t require the psychic powers of an octopus to get the strong sense just about everybody else does.

The Dutch come into the game with a decent case to make for being able to upset the odds. As of Tuesday, when they beat Uruguay to secure their place in the final, they are some 25 games unbeaten and they are now on the brink of emulating the great Brazilian side of 1970 by completing both a World Cup qualifying campaign and finals tournament with a 100 per cent record.

To date in South Africa, they have comfortably outscored their opponents tomorrow, bagging 12 in six games compared to Spain’s seven. The tally for the favourites, indeed, is one of the lowest ever for a team reaching the final of a World Cup run under the current format and, as it happens, none of the other sides in prominent positions on the list – Argentina in 1990 when they got just five, Germany four years earlier with six, Italy and France in 1994 and 2006 respectively with eight – went on the win the decider.

The numbers then, appear to hold out the hope that this rather run of the mill looking Dutch side might do what the great ones of the mid 1970s and late 1980s couldn’t, and lift a world crown.

They have at least been this far before with the country finishing as runners-up in 1974 and 1978 which is more than can be said for the Spanish. But a like-for-like comparison between the two likely line-ups for tomorrow’s game strongly suggests the historical stats will prove to have been a poor guide on this occasion.

Van Marwijk’s side is significantly better in midfield and attack than at the back but the truth is that his opposite number, Vicente del Bosque looks to have a stronger hand to play in just about every department.

Gregory van der Wiel is likely to be returned at right back by the coach, whose successes to date involve one Dutch Cup and one Uefa Cup, while Nigel de Jong is also available again after suspension and is expected to partner van Marwijk’s son-in-law, Mark van Bommel in central midfield.

The pair’s ability to disrupt the slick Spanish passing will be of critical importance to their side’s chances of success while Maarten Stekelenburg is likely to have to do a good deal better than he did late on in the semi-final if the “Oranje” are to not to fall victim to the sheer volume of good goal-scoring chances that del Bosque’s men tend to generate.

The European champions have outpassed everyone at this tournament by quite some margin and, it’s no coincidence, have had a good many more attempts on goal.

Still, some small uncertainty remains about their attack, with del Bosque having to decide again on whether to start an out of sorts Fernando Torres, stick with Pedro or even bring Cesc Fabregas into his line-up.

After a strong performance against the Germans, notwithstanding the late cock-up when he should have set Torres up for a Spanish second, the young Barcelona striker Pedro looks just about the best option and should retain his place alongside David Villa in what is, on paper, a two-man attack but is in reality part of a system based on a five-man midfield and a lone striker, with the pair alternating the responsibility of pushing on by themselves.

On their form here, Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder might merit a place in that stellar midfield but there is nobody else really amongst the Dutch who could be remotely confident of displacing their opposite number, certainly not, on the evidence of the last few weeks, the normally exciting Robin van Persie.

Robben’s pace and trickery with the ball at his feet is likely to pose quite a challenge for Joan Capdevila and Spain’s ability to reinforce their left back without opening the door for Sneijder to waltz through the centre of their defence is likely to be their biggest challenge at the back.

Van Marwijk insists that his team will aim, as they have tended to, to take the game to their opponents but that’s a risky enough strategy against a Spain side whose movement in possession is so swift and precise.

At the back, his side looks very vulnerable and if the midfield does not shoulder a good deal of the defensive responsibilities then the Dutch would appear to be as good as doomed.

That, though, is likely to be much less of an issue with this Dutch side than some of those it is trying to eclipse. If they really can keep it very tight in the final third of the pitch while retaining possession going forward more effectively than the Germans did then they should be in with a genuine shout for their opponents are not quite so awe inspiring at the back themselves.

Against a side of such mesmerising attacking ability, though, it is still hard to imagine that the Dutch will not end up being second best yet again with the name of Spain added to the list of World Champions for the first time.