The European Commission (EC) is poised to rule that the English Premier League's £1billion deal with BSkyB is unlawful in a move that could spell disaster for English football.

Mario Monti, the European competition commissioner, is understood to be ready to rule that the 20-strong Premier League should sell its media rights for the televising of live matches to more than one broadcaster and not exclusively to Rupert Murdoch's company.

If a statement of objection is issued by the EC, it could lead to the Premier League returning to the market to negotiate a new television deal with more than one broadcaster. This could seriously affect the amount of money it receives because live matches would no longer be exclusively shown by one channel.

The commission's objection could also plunge many clubs into financial chaos, given that they have already drawn up financial plans based on this summer's £1.024bn deal between BSkyB and the Premier League for 138 games a season over three years starting from 2004-5.

Monti believes the current deal is against the anti-cartel provisions of the Treaty of Rome and he described it as "bad for the competition in broadcasting markets".

The EC is to make its decision public at the end of the month and the Premier League has been virtually camped out in Brussels, lobbying commissioners with the support of the British sports minister, Richard Caborn.

Andy Burnham, a junior UK minister and member of the football taskforce, has been lobbying Monti to accept the current deal if the Premier League redistributes 10 per cent of its profits to Nationwide League clubs, in contrast to the current five per cent. He said: "English football's future hinges on this decision and the stakes are very high. If the commission carries out its threat, Euro-spats about prawn cocktail crisps and pounds and ounces will look like nothing.

"Even now, the commission should see that the best public-interest solution would be to allow the proposed new deal to stand but to require greater redistribution of the proceeds to the \ Football League as the quid pro quo."

With a decision imminent, senior officials from the UK's Department of Culture, Media and Sport (DCMS) and its Foreign Office are mediating between the Premier League and the commission, to try to stave off the decision.

A senior DCMS source said: "The government can't get involved in competition decisions, but we're trying to make sure that all the facts and sides of the arguments are understood."

The UK government is eager not to appear to intervene, and there has been only one ministerial call to Monti, made in July by the trade secretary, Patricia Hewitt. But the UK foreign secretary, Jack Straw, a keen football fan, and the UK culture secretary, Tessa Jowell, have both been in regular contact with Dave Richards, chairman of the Premier League.

A commission spokesman said: "We are examining details of the television deal and will be making an announcement very soon. We have already made it clear that we are not happy with aspects of the deal and the Premier League is aware of our concerns."

A Premier League spokesman said in a statement when the EC first raised its objections: "We have noted commissioner Monti's public comments with regard to the sale of the Premier League's live television rights. However, the commission has yet to officially inform us of its position. Once it does we will review any concerns that we may have."

Guardian Service