Situation is serious but not hopeless

With Ireland's campaign officially over, England must beat Wales by seven points or more, or the Scots beat a declining French side by 16 points or more, or a fourth wooden spoon in succession will be ours. Ugh.

If both games panned out that way, then, ironically, the stated objective of third place would be achieved. Get out the bunting and pop those corks? Warren Gatland certainly wouldn't be inclined to fool himself with that notion, whatever about the public.

After all, it was Gatland who said in a prematch interview recorded for RTE that "it will be a disaster for us if we lose this match". In the event, a defeat in itself needn't have been that demoralising, but the manner of it assuredly was for a coach who had genuinely believed in the potential of this team.

Now detractors can claim that the one-point defeat to France was more of the same (from last year), as was the win over Wales (from every second year since 1983), not to mention the defeats to England and Scotland (every year for the last five).

The French have since looked a team in decline, while the Welsh have rapidly addressed the tight-five problems they had against Ireland in a revamped front row and gone on to record their exhilarating and famous win in Paris. But what does the Irish graph look like?

After the promise generated by the one-point defeat to France and the win over Wales, it was hoped that the English performance was a one-off. But, last Saturday, there was a jaded and resigned air to the last quarter.

Gatland had sought to build on the solid foundations of set-pieces and defences by developing more of a running game. The latter did happen to a degree in the targeted matches, but came with the long-standing question marks over the team's ability to convert chances - especially amongst a back-line that continues to look the most limited of the five. To make matters worse, the foundations suddenly started to creak. Perhaps too much can be read into one match. After all, the refereeing decisions went heavily against Ireland, and the game did turn on two key turnovers from 15-13 entering the last quarter.

What this campaign did reinforce was that Ireland needs its limited pool of Test players (perhaps 20 at most) fully fit and firing. Start scratching the surface (Malcolm O'Kelly sidelined, debilitating knocks to others) and it's a bit threadbare. Most unnerving of all, though, this championship (and primarily the conclusion to it) has probably demonstrated that certain players aren't up to it. For someone used to success as a player and a coach with Waikato, the All Blacks, Galwegians and Connacht, this must seem like a crisis.

Gatland knows only too well that the honeymoon is over. Nor will the committee men have enjoyed the fall-out of another defeat. He also knows that the buck stops with him and that a bit of a rethink is called for, by him and his support staff.

Do they revert to last season's more structured and limited game, and take a leaf out of the Ulster book, or do they continue with the current approach? It's a toughie and it's all theirs. But most likely they will choose the latter.

If so, then this will require fine-tuning the four-up defence off set-piece ball and reorganising the defence in broken play off turnover ball - something Gatland knew would have to be done given the increased risk of turnovers from more of a running game.

ONE former Irish international of some repute also reckons the Irish backs should start concentrating more on their lines of running in practice than set moves. It was the Scots', and especially John Leslie's, lines of running which did so much damage to the inside Irish defence.

Loyalty and a rollicking having been tried, how much do they tinker with personnel? Here, though, as the dismal A campaign has highlighted, the options aren't plentiful. About the only player from those ranks to flourish has been Shane Horgan. His promotion against Italy might also encourage those outside the Test squad who feel it is a closed shop.

Given the success of the under-21s, it's tempting to say that the future of Irish rugby is in safe hands, but it's the present, or immediate future, which is the cause for concern. Promoting Brian O'Driscoll alongside Horgan might be unrealistic (though it would be exciting), so a place on the A team, or the Test bench as a prelude to a place on the Australian tour, may be more feasible.

Although making an impact as a sub is often easier, Rob Henderson probably deserves a start. The Scots did their homework and thought on their feet regarding Conor O'Shea, always kicking to his left, always moving him to expose his uncertainty over a bouncing ball. Gordon D'Arcy has been the full back of the AIL and if ever there was a chance to look at him before the World Cup, now is surely it.

There seems a need for a flyer on the wing too. Alas, Niall Woods may still be sidelined and comes with defensive reservations, and Dennis Hickie is still edging his way back. That leaves only James Topping (or maybe Darragh O'Mahony). It's instructive to note that the As have been playing a converted centre and the under-21s a converted full back and converted centre.

Conor McGuinness has had a poor campaign, although alternatives don't abound yet. Logically the replacement would have to be Ciaran Scally, although, like O'Driscoll, he isn't helped by plying his trade in the rarefied surrounds of AIL Division Three and his earlier lack of exposure with Leinster. Peter Stringer is a personal favourite; he has arguably played the best of any of them with Munster and the under-21s, and a promotion of some sort would be interesting.

Up front, the faith shown in the likes of the three Ws - Woods, Wallace and Ward - has not been returned. If fit, Dion O'Cuinneagain looks the only credible open side in the absence of Kieron Dawson, ideally in a return to the back row which was the best of the campaign - against France.

If, though, Eric Miller isn't fit, then a first start for Trevor Brennan alongside Victor Costello is a logical progression. As with Andy Ward, Paul Wallace looks in need of a two-week break in the sun. Peter Clohessy could switch to tight head to accommodate Justin Fitzpatrick.

All a bit radical and unexpected, with maybe a touch of fingers crossed. But fresh faces seems necessary, albeit tempered with the even more pressing need to end at least one poor sequence, against the Italians. The situation is serious, but it's not hopeless. Here's hoping they make it.