Gloucester vs Leinster: Visiting power to see off stubborn Kingsholm resistance

Champions Cup: Gloucester vs Leinster, Saturday January 14th, Kingsholm, kick-off 1pm, live on BT Sport and via The Irish Times’ liveblog

Following last month’s 57-0 drubbing at the RDS, Gloucester boss George Skivington promised he wouldn’t send out an uncompetitive line-up come the return fixture in Kingsholm.

Ahead of the lunchtime Saturday clash in the English west country, he followed through on that promise.

Just two changes have been made to the side that ran Saracens close last weekend in the Premiership, a game that could well have resulted in a Gloucester win had Owen Farrell, who secured the match-winning drop goal, been carded for a challenge for which he was later suspended.

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At least one of Gloucester’s changes is injury enforced, Lloyd Evans was forced off after just 38 minutes of that clash and George Barton replaces him at fullback. Barton struggled at outhalf against Leinster in the RDS before departing with a head injury. Santi Carreras has proved a much more fruitful No 10 for Skivington.

The other change from the impressive Saracens display comes at centre, Seb Atkinson replacing Georgia international Giorgi Kveseladze at 12. He partners British and Irish Lion Chris Harris in midfield.

Running Sarries so close has certainly turned a few Leinster heads. Add in how this is Gloucester’s signature home European tie this year and their own desire to still qualify, and this could well be a trickier task for Leinster than the disastrous performance Racing put on in Le Havre.

Gloucester have enough playmaking ability with Carreras and Barton to threaten, with the well-known pace of Jonny May out wide. The injured Louis Rees-Zammit is a loss, but the return to consistent game time for one-time England cap Ollie Thorley, a hard-running, straight line speedster in his own right, goes some way to offsetting that.

As always, especially against Leinster, the question is will the forwards offer that talent the space to be effective? That is where Gloucester start to look deficient.

Openside flanker and captain Lewis Ludlow caught Eddie Jones’s eye on a number of occasions, but the backrow of him, former England bulldozer Ben Morgan and Ruan Ackermann, a strong carrier in his own right, pales in comparison to Leinster’s in-form trio of Ryan Baird, Josh van der Flier and Caelan Doris.

The selection of Dan Sheehan and Ross Molony should lead to a solid lineout platform for the visitors. When the duo didn’t play a fortnight ago, the set-piece suffered dramatically at the hands of Connacht’s Murray brothers.

[ Ex-Ireland U-20 player McGuigan key to Gloucester reaching their ambitions ]

Gloucester no doubt will look at what Ospreys did to a Leinster scrum anchored by Michael Ala’alatoa and set their target accordingly. It remains to be seen if their frontrow of Val Rapava-Ruskin, Ireland underage international George McGuigan and Kirill Gotovtsev can do similar damage.

Skivington’s outfit on paper look a good match style-wise for Leinster. Against Saracens, they were more than comfortable sacrificing 59 per cent of possession and making the majority of tackles (185 vs 115), while still working enough opportunities to be competitive. Their defensive workload will be high once again vs a possession-hungry Leinster.

In all likelihood, Leinster’s powerful forward carriers – Andrew Porter, Sheehan, Doris et al - will ultimately do enough to break Gloucester’s resistance, even if it does start resolutely. Another bonus-point win, three in as many European outings, will go a long way to securing top seed with a potentially disinterested Racing coming to Dublin next weekend.

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That will be the team’s success, but individual interests no doubt turn to Andy Farrell’s Six Nations squad which is due to be named next Thursday. James Lowe’s absence opens the door for Jordan Larmour to continue to impress, his newfound desire to come off his wing looking for attacking work certainly suits the Farrell mould. Robert Baloucoune’s hamstring injury could well open the door further.

The greatest opportunity falls to Jamie Osborne. Starting at 12 due to injuries for Robbie Henshaw and Charlie Ngatai, the Naas man has built up quite an impressive body of work. He was a rare positive in the first half against the Ospreys with his ability to link play to the back-three threats, while his role at 12 at Kingsholm will allow him to show off his carrying game.

Osborne has the positional versatility that is attractive to the national squad, not to mention how James Hume’s lack of form for Ulster could well be his gain.

But first, Leinster have the no small matter of securing a five-pointer. Gloucester will prove stubborn initially, but Leinster’s power and tempo should see the visitors fly back to Dublin still ranked as Europe’s number one seed.

GLOUCESTER: George Barton; Jonny May, Chris Harris, Seb Atkinson, Ollie Thorley; Santi Carreras, Ben Meehan; Val Rapava-Ruskin, George McGuigan, Kirill Gotovtsev; Freddie Clarke, Matias Alemanno; Ruan Ackermann, Lewis Ludlow (capt), Ben Morgan.

Replacements: Seb Blake, Harry Elrington, Ciaran Knight, Cam Jordan, Jack Clement, Stephen Varney, Billy Twelvetrees, Tom Seabrook.

LEINSTER: Hugo Keenan; Jordan Larmour, Garry Ringrose, Jamie Osborne, Jordan Larmour; Ross Byrne, Jamison Gibson-Park; Andrew Porter, Dan Sheehan, Michael Ala’alatoa; Ross Molony, James Ryan; Ryan Baird, Josh van der Flier, Caelan Doris.

Replacements: Rónan Kelleher, Michael Milne, Cian Healy, Brian Deeny, Jack Conan, Nick McCarthy, Harry Byrne, Liam Turner.

Forecast: Leinster to secure a bonus-point win