Refreshed French advance on Europe

On Rugby: So, who said the French aren't interested in the European Cup? And the French don't like to travel? And the expanded, 30-game French Championship would leave them too knackered to go all the way in the cup? Well, the third part of the theory may yet come to pass, but the weekend just past surely gave the lie to the previous two.

Certainly the French and Irish were notable winners, and the English, Welsh and poor old Scots were the significant losers over the course of a seismic fifth round. Trevor Brennan last week spoke of how "refreshed" he felt he and his Toulouse team-mates were in training after a nine-day break over Christmas, and that mid-season respite, rigorously fought for by the French players' association, clearly revived their aching limbs and tired minds.

As a result the French, who have provided 25 of the previous quarter-finalists (compared to 17 from England, 12 from Wales, nine from Ireland and one Scottish) could have four or five of the last eight.

Thomas Castaignède perhaps put it best on Sky Sports' Sunday night, three-hour highlights wrap-up of another compelling weekend of European Cup rugby. "Biarritz could kill the hopes of English rugby" in the competition, the former French maestro observed. And how true.

Biarritz's stunning, 21-17 win in Welford Road throws up the real prospect that the French team can evict the long-time tournament favourites and twice former winners, Leicester, as well as the holders, Wasps. Were that to be the case, England's representation could be reduced to just Northampton, and maybe Newcastle, as well as, at a push, Gloucester.

Newcastle, who have scored only seven tries, had possibly ridden their luck to lead that pool anyway, and with their injury crisis at outhalf, Jonny Wilkinson now joining Dave Walder and Matt Burke on the sidelines, the Falcons now look the most vulnerable of the pool leaders. Wilkinson had looked to be approaching his old self again on his third attempted comeback of the season, but, even so, his was surely quote of the weekend amid the furore surrounding his latest setback. "Worse things are happening in the world."

None of those would be seen as heavyweight contenders, à la Leicester or Wasps, who have won three of the last four cups, all the more so as none of them would likely be at home in the quarter-finals. Leicester would now be out but for Harry Ellis' injury-time try, and by rights he could have been off the pitch for three acts of skulduggery, and Wasps probably need to beat Biarritz and score a bonus point to get through.

Nonetheless, endeavouring to forecast the final eight has possibly never been more difficult going into the final round of pool matches. Leinster are the only ones assured of a place in the quarter-finals, with a win over Treviso guaranteed to give them a home tie, although the Italians will be nothing like the pushovers they've been deemed to be.

Beyond that, another dozen teams are still in contention. Toulouse, Stade Français, Biarritz, Munster and Newcastle are next in line to win their pools and vie for home advantage in the last eight. The four home quarter-finalists will almost certainly come from that lot, although Leicester, Wasps, Castres, Perpignan, perhaps the Dragons and Gloucester can all still win their pools, with Northampton, Castres and Perpignan the leading contenders for the two best runners-up slots.

And what of the two Irish contenders? Leinster's larceny at the Rec justifiably revived that old chestnut that when it's put up to them, especially up front, they don't have the pack to mix it with Europe's heavyweights. John Connolly led the chorus, and was even backed up on Sky's highlights package by Jim Glennon TD, proving the old adage that a politician never turns down a camera opportunity.

No, not a chance, he ventured of Leinster's cup prospects, although he hoped he would be proved wrong. The former Leinster lock and manager apparently also made the observation that Leinster miss a Chris Pim-type enforcer, though Brennan might be a more pertinent example.

When they are competing at least equally up front, when they're running game is flowing and they're making their tackles, Leinster can be a compelling force, but aside from the obvious need to speed up and improve their lineout, certainly at times they seem to miss a hard man to put in a big hit or ball-carry to stem the flow when a game is going against them.

There remains the nagging if curious statistic that none of the three teams who previously won all six pool games went on to lift the trophy, Leinster being the last of them two seasons ago. Yet it was better to get their wake-up call last weekend than in the knock-out stages. Bath have one of the best defensive lineouts in the Premiership, analysing the opposition, closing the space and getting into the air early, and Leinster surely won't cough up nine or 10 of their own throws again?

Munster, by contrast, again lacked the kind of fire-power (which Leinster have) to reach their Holy Grail, but come the knock-out stages they should have Ronan O'Gara, Rob Henderson and maybe John Kelly to supplement Christian Cullen, Shaun Payne and Anthony Horgan.

They'll probably need a win and a bonus point to ensure a "home" quarter-final at Lansdowne Road, but with 24,000 tickets sold, and a crowd of up to 30,000 forecast for Twickenham next Saturday, that should inspire them against Harlequins.

With that, Munster will have helped set the attendance record for a pool match as well as a final (v Leicester three seasons ago) and a semi-final (v Wasps last season), with Leinster's home tie against Biarritz holding the quarter-final record.

Sky may not generate anything like the viewing figures as terrestrial television, but to its credit their broad, in-depth and enthusiastic coverage has surely contributed to the competition's growing appeal. Last season saw an increase of 100,000 to over 500,000 spectators who paid through the turnstiles at the pool stages, and this season's figure is set to exceed 600,000.