Record in friendlies distorts the true picture

On Soccer: If Brian Kerr's side fail to qualify for next summer's World Cup finals in Germany, the Irish manager might actually hope they miss out by more than four points. There may, at least, be some consolation if France and Switzerland were to come here in the autumn, play well and win. There would be little comfort in being left to reflect on what might have been if only this Irish team had held their nerve home and away against an ordinary Israeli side.

The destination of the group's prized top-two spots remain to be decided, of course, with none of the "big four" having beaten another in eight games between them to date. Ireland's position, though, is much weaker than four days ago.

That the French have failed to beat any of their rivals is the most remarkable aspect of the competition so far, but the most disappointing is that the Irish, as second seeds, have failed to capitalise on the turmoil within Raymond Domenech's camp and now go into the summer, assuming they win tomorrow night, requiring at least two wins from three games if they are to have any chance of progressing.

The disappointment is compounded by the manner in which the team arrived at this point. Solid performances in Basle and Paris put Kerr's side in a decent position ahead of the Israel double-header, but much of what had been achieved has been undermined by two draws in which a combination of conservative calls and poor performances proved the team's undoing.

After Saturday's display it is hard to see how things are going to improve enough after the summer. The team's run without a win over decent opposition in a competitive game, which dates back well before Kerr's time in charge to the victory over the Netherlands in late 2001, continues, and there has been little to suggest they have the wherewithal to beat their chief rivals in September and October.

Beating one might suffice, but their prospects of doing even that will not be enhanced by the fact that France and Switzerland will come to Lansdowne Road believing that, even if they fall behind, there will be every reason to keep hanging in. The Irish, after all, have allowed leads to slip in three of the four games they have played against the group's better sides. The Israelis, by contrast, have come from behind in four of their five drawn encounters.

Kerr might point to the fact that during his two-and-a-half years in charge the Irish team have lost just twice (away to Switzerland and against Nigeria in the Unity Cup) in 28 games, but the lack of victories in key matches is a growing concern, and he conceded on Saturday that his side needed to make a breakthrough in this department if they are to qualify.

In fact, his overall record is flattered by a string of wins over highly-rated sides in friendly games which he and his players clearly took more seriously than their opposition did. A look at the qualification group tables, however, gives a truer picture of the respective strengths of the sides the Irish have faced recently.

During the build-up to last year's European Championships, the Czechs and Dutch were, amid some fanfare, beaten by the Irish, but having reached the semi-finals of the tournament in Portugal they are now five and six points clear respectively of Romania in Group One, who Marco van Basten's side beat 2-0 at the weekend.

Portugal lost in Dublin in February but lead Group Three by three points, and Croatia, who were beaten 1-0 at Lansdowne Road last November, have a one-point advantage over Sweden at the top of Group Eight.

For Kerr, even more than his players, the implications of such shortcomings are serious. Most of this squad will still be around when the qualifying campaign for the next European Championship gets under way in the autumn of next year, but there has been no clear indication from the FAI, whose new chief executive, John Delaney, opposed the appointment of the Dubliner in 2003, that the association will be offering a new deal before his current one runs out towards the end of this year.

The manager said a few weeks ago that he did not want to be left hanging on for a new contract as Ireland went into the last game of the qualifying tournament, against Switzerland in October, but it appears unlikely his future will be resolved before Ireland's participation or otherwise at next summer's finals is decided.

A near miss might yet make it difficult to justify not allowing Kerr another crack at bringing the team to a major championship, while the lack of an obviously better alternative may, in any case, restrict Delaney's room for manoeuvre. But qualification appears to be the only way Kerr will be assured of an extension.

If he and his players still achieve it after the weekend's performance then both will have earned their rewards. If not, then it's hard to imagine either would feel they are due much sympathy.