With just 17 days to go, the professionals are getting edgy. If anything goes slightly wrong now there is no casual, "Oh, it'll be alright in a few days". Now, it's serious.

A whole year of preparation can be shot to pieces by just one bad step or a stone waiting maliciously. It can concentrate the mind wonderfully.

Not that that will concern the legions of enthusiastic amateurs who are eagerly awaiting those flights to Birmingham and Bristol. There are nerves, sure, but it's more an eagerness for the off and, anyway, nervous anticipation is one of the glories of any worthwhile journey.

It has been the same for years, and no doubt everyone will fall into the same trap again. A winter of domestic action will have convinced many that the huge Irish team are on the brink of a record-breaking festival. With the rush of expectation pulsing through a nation's veins, the lessons of so many past years will have been forgotten.

Last year is as good an example as any. Sure there were five Irish-trained winners, including the peerless Istabraq in the Champion Hurdle, but two of the other four (Generosa and Khayrawani) weren't even the best backed Irish horses in their races. And what about the others that had filled the "banker" tag? His Song in the Arkle, Biliverdin in the Bumper, the tragically unlucky Nick Dundee in the SunAlliance Chase, Elegant Lord in the Foxhunters, the ill-fated Cardinal Hill in the Festival opener. All favourites, all beaten out of sight.

Prudence must be the byword for Cheltenham success. For instance, ask almost all in racing who will win the Champion Hurdle and the reply will be Istabraq. Ask about the Champion Chase and most will offer Flagship Uberalles. And as for the Gold Cup, well, the credentials of the reigning champion See More Business look impeccable, don't they?

Thus the festival's three big races have three big favourites, and at current odds the chances of that treble coming up are in the region of 6 to 1. If anyone you know is thinking of taking that 6 to 1, kindly direct them to some place where they can play apples and oranges in safety.

Which is not to say that the three favourites can't win, but the odds of it happening in three of the most competitive races of the season are a damn sight longer than 6 to 1. All three are obvious form picks, but Cheltenham has a way of reaching out a hand and slapping the obvious.

Thus the word value, racing's current favourite buzz word, raises its head. It may not be immediately clear in the championship races but in others there could be some of that hibernating value waiting to be woken.

Noel Meade must be heartily tired of the annual media fascination surrounding his lack of festival success, but even he must be tempted by what the bookmakers have done regarding his pair of horses for the Triumph Hurdle.

Sungazer, a horse with a reputation as a "thinker" on the flat and on the verge of being sold out of the yard last autumn, is as low as 10 to 1 for one of the toughest and roughest races of the year, while his stable companion Fable is at 25 to 1.

Fable has been beaten just once in five outings, when not fully wound up, and combines a flat rating in the high 90s with jumping experience. Meade has made no secret that he regards Fable as a better horse than Sungazer on the evidence at home. So riddle the 25 to 1.

That appears the most obvious glitch among the ante-post prices, and really at this late stage it's probably advisable to wait until the day itself, when the strength of the market often sees horses on the drift.

Norman Williamson's reserve of good rides for the festival is almost limitless, but he faces a delicate choice in the Arkle Trophy between Decoupage and Bellator who have dominated the ante-post betting for the second race on the first day.

Whatever the jockey's choice, however, Bellator does look the one to be on even though Venetia Williams's horse is on the small side. That didn't stop him jumping Ascot like a gymnast, however, and he did it off a crucifyingly fast pace set by Blowing Wind.

The pace for everyone involved at Cheltenham will be even faster. But just like the Florida Pearl's and the Istabraqs of this world, the next couple of weeks is all about treading carefully.