O'Sullivan has little room to manoeuvre

Gerry Thornley On Rugby It says everything about the evident gulf in class last Saturday that the All Blacks will make a good…

Gerry Thornley On RugbyIt says everything about the evident gulf in class last Saturday that the All Blacks will make a good deal more changes to their line-up for next weekend's game against England than Ireland will for the visit of Australia.

The selection will probably generate more speculation and debate than any other this week.

Just take the number 14 jersey alone. Rico Gear underlined that he is one of the best finishers on the planet with his hat-trick against Wales, and then along comes Doug Howlett with a vintage display, which but for the tightest (if correct) of video calls would also have yielded a hat-trick to augment his phenomenal work-rate around the pitch.

Even if Howlett makes it, there might be as few as five of last Saturday's starting team lining up for the Twickenham kick-off - say Aaron Mauger, Tony Woodcock, Ali Williams and Richie McCaw.

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That said, there are so many paper-thin choices. Tana Umaga will obviously return as captain at number 13 ahead of Ma'a Nonu, but from the perspective of Shane Horgan and Gordon D'Arcy, one wonders if facing a midfield combination of Mauger and Nonu is any easier than Conrad Smith and Umaga.

The remarkably balanced and powerful Nonu is every bit as hard to stop as Umaga and on Saturday's evidence, Mauger's vision and distribution are every bit as good as Smith's if not better. Bearing that in mind, it was interesting that the All Blacks' assistant/forwards' coach Wayne Smith maintained that the Horgan-D'Arcy axis had been quite innovative and had caused his team problems.

It's true that Horgan's handling was at times sluggish, and undoubtedly gave ammunition to those who believe he is more effective on the wing than in midfield. Yet he also penetrated the Blacks' defensive line a couple of times, even if opting to kick ahead on one occasion, and freed his hands in the tackle to release the supporting Denis Leamy on another.

He's also a sharper passer than he showed last Saturday and, lest we forget, it was only a year ago that Horgan did more damage to the Springboks' defence than anyone that day.

The alternative, Andrew Trimble, is an immense running talent, scoring two of the best 10 tries of the under-21 World Cup two years ago, standing out as a beacon of light in a disappointing Irish under-21 side last season and impressing with each passing game in his first few months on the Ulster team, even against Biarritz away.

Trimble is certainly ready for a first start against Romania the following week, and possibly even a run on the wing this week, where he has played for Ulster, in place of Anthony Horgan, whose confidence drained against the All Blacks and looks the most vulnerable of the starting XV, or a place on the bench. The other alternative to the outside three is Girvan Dempsey, whether on the wing or fullback.

Trimble was close to the 22 last week and one suspects he may be O'Sullivan's only change in personnel, with Horgan switching to the wing.

It is not in O'Sullivan's nature to make wholesale changes, and in a desire to avert a sense of panic, it is understandable. Besides, the choices as presented by those selected on the bench, are not obviously better. Is this the game to drop Shane Byrne and John Hayes and blood Rory and Simon Best, bearing in mind the struggling Wallaby scrum ("a disgrace", according to Seán Fitzpatrick) is hardly likely to wreak as much damage?

No less than Byrne, Malcolm O'Kelly should be better for the benefit of only his second full outing of the season. It's hard to believe that at a mere 31, Ireland's most capped player doesn't have plenty of good rugby in him, and similarly, one wonders if it would be wise, against the 6ft 7ins Wallaby locks Nathan Sharpe and Hugh McMeniman, to omit O'Kelly for the talented but untried Matt McCullough.

The backrow is where O'Sullivan has most options, but whatever options he chooses, something would have to give - be it work on the ground, leadership, dynamism or a lineout option. He pointedly stated his belief that they had performed well on Saturday.

Presuming Simon Easterby's battered face has been patched up again, and according to an IRFU spokesperson all the walking wounded are expected to be passed fit, it would be no surprise to see no change, in which case Anthony Foley will not be asked to fill last Saturday's obvious leadership void.

As interesting will be to see how O'Sullivan and his backroom staff help the players to lift morale, which must have been damaged. Wales were possibly still reeling from a similarly deflating experience when nearly losing at home to Fiji a week later.

And as interesting again will be seeing whether the same tactics will be as rigidly employed. No one could have envisaged that Ronan O'Gara would not once use the wind to put the ball behind the wings and into the corners, or test Leon MacDonald in the area. Certainly the All Blacks were surprised.

Ireland certainly need an improved performance and, ideally, to hop back on the winning trail. Australia, after their worst losing sequence since 1969, need a win more than anybody. But their scrum problems aside, they've plenty of ball players and pace, they've been playing some good stuff, making line-breaks, creating opportunities and adhesively sticking to opponents, not least the George Gregan-inspired comeback against the All Blacks.

The losses were all against the world's heavyweights, and five of the games were away, two in South Africa, and one each in New Zealand, France and England. Who wouldn't find that itinerary tricky?

gthornley@irish-times.ie