To lose one Lions captain may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose both looks like a potential game-changer. The news that Paul O’Connell has been ruled out of Saturday’s Test after his worryingly problematic back problem resurfaced is a hammer blow for a hard-hit Ireland squad – all the more so as he had apparently been flying in training, and had assuredly been pencilled in as captain in the absence of Brian O’Driscoll.
Declan Kidney and co were thus left to find both a replacement lock and a replacement captain. The only viable options would appear to be Jamie Heaslip and Jonathan Sexton.
Of the two, Heaslip has been Joe Schmidt’s go-to captain in the absence of Leo Cullen rather than Sexton, and indeed has a 100 per cent record in leading Leinster on over 10 occasions, including captaining them at the Aviva Stadium against Munster.
Ireland assistant coach Mark Tainton said on Monday Sexton’s other burdens as goalkicker-cum-chief strategist would not militate against him being captain, but he certainly has plenty on his plate, all the more so now.
Besides which, number eight is closer to the coalface and ever since the Lions tour, Heaslip has always been particularly fired up against the Springboks.
O’Connell will see a specialist in the coming days but this recurring back problem must be of huge concern. Ruled out of the last two Six Nations games and the New Zealand tour with a knee injury, his back problem has limited him to just two games for Munster this season.
His absence on Saturday will compound the loss of the last two ERC European Players of the Year (Rob Kearney and Seán O’Brien) as well as Stephen Ferris.
The Springboks have been hit too, but Ireland’s casualty list constitutes a sharper test of more shallow reserves.
The contenders to fill the secondrow void are Dan Tuohy, Donncha O’Callaghan and Mike McCarthy. Tuohy partnered Donnacha Ryan in all three Tests in New Zealand, but was strangely subdued after his high-impact games in Ulster’s run to the Heineken Cup final, especially in the Hamilton horror show.
Elsewhere, Richardt Strauss looks sure to start his first Test, against his native country and in direct opposition to his cousin Adriaan, while there are all manner of combinations to pack down either side of Heaslip in the absence of O’Brien.
Kevin McLaughlin would give the kind of physicality and work-rate required for an arm wrestle with this week’s visitors, whereas switching Peter O’Mahony to blindside to accommodate Chris Henry, whom the coaching staff have always been sweet on, would augment the breakdown work of Heaslip and Strauss.
Scrumhalf looks as tight a call as ever, with the argument for an overdue reprise of the Eoin Reddan-Sexton combination as strong as ever. Yet, the feeling always lurks that despite his brainstorms in Paris against Racing, the physicality Conor Murray displayed that day and others would be preferred for this particular contest, with Reddan’s in-form, high tempo game to call upon from the bench.
The need for Gordon D’Arcy’s experience is even more acute without O’Driscoll, while it makes sense to persist with the investment in Keith Earls as the great man’s long-term successor.
Indeed, Earls remains the best fit and after his form in the Six Nations at 13, it would be foolhardy to do otherwise. Furthermore, it could be one of only two combinations that have actually started a Test together, the halves being the other.
That said Earls is probably the best fit for 15 as well, even if he has only played there once since his Test debut four years ago this weekend against Canada in Thomond Park. The one specialist full-back in the squad is Denis Hurley, but the feeling remains Simon Zebo’s big, left-footed kicking game and running threat will be thrown into the mix from there.
The expanded bench, to accommodate a second specialist prop, points to a call-up for Taranaki tighthead Michael Bent and must also mean that David Kilcoyne is pushing Tom Court as back-up loosehead, with Iain Henderson another potential bolter.
No more medical bulletins between now and kick-off would be welcome.
IRELAND (possible): Zebo; Bowe, Earls, D’Arcy, Trimble; Sexton, Murray; Healy, Strauss, Ross, McCarthy or Tuohy or O’Callaghan, Ryan, O’Mahony, Henry, Heaslip (capt). Replacements: Cronin, Court or Kilcoyne, Bent, McCarthy or Tuohy, McLaughlin/Henderson, Reddan, O’Gara, McFadden.
