So much for expectations. Two weeks ago, tonight's Ulster-Munster Guinness Interprovincial might generally have been pinpointed as a quasi championship decider, or at any rate a table topper.
However, while the winners should still go top of the mid-term table, the losers are likely to prop it up.
Thus both enter the fray with near identikit form guides. Each dutifully set sail with opening inteprovincial wins, then unexpectedly veered off course at home to Leinster and away to Connacht respectively, before steadying the ships with home wins over the Scottish districts a week ago.
There, though, many of the similarities end, and in many respects - settled selections, form and historical precedent - Ulster look justifiable favourites, albeit marginally.
Declan Kidney rightly points out that Munster went to Ravenhill a year ago seeking a 100 per cent record and the championship outright, while a pointless Ulster were seeking to salvage the third Euro spot. Ulster won "and their side now doesn't in anyway resemble that team."
Indeed, only five of that Ulster side survive a year on, and true enough in nearly every instance Ulster look stronger for the turnaround in personnel. Munster, for their part, have yet to finalise their line-up although with the anticipated changes after a desultory start to the season, they could end up with as many as 10 of the side which lost so limply in Belfast last year.
Yet, perversely, Ulster also look the more settled side. They show only one change from the team which accounted for Glasgow Caldeonians, and this sees the return of Jonathan Bell - admittedly sooner than Harry Williams had intended - for an injured Stanley McDowell. Nevertheless, with Andy Matchett having now forced his way in ahead of Stephen Bell at scrum-half and Williams opting for Jonathan Davis's slight edge in pace over Andy Park, the Ulster back-line looks the more experienced and potent unit. This is particularly so at the 10-12-13 axis, where David Humphreys was reputedly on song against Glasgow, although his `minder', Mark McCall, undergoes a fitness test on a shoulder injury today.
The other "very tight" selection, according to Williams, sees the welcome return of the likeable Dolph Lundgren lookalike, Dean Macartney, the development tourist of two summers ago who missed practically all of last season but has now had his knee reconstructed.
"Steve (McKinty) has been Mr Consistency for God knows how long, and is very unlucky," said Williams. "But Dean has had a new lease of life and his back to the old Mac. It would have been impossible to leave him out after his performance against Glasgow."
Munster await fitness tests today on Eddie Halvey, Killian Keane, Mick Lynch, Brian O'Meara and Ian Murray. However, in time-honoured Limerick/Munster tradition all of them will probably be declared fit, meaning about one-third of the team is likely to be changed, both from the side which accounted for Edinburgh and which lost to Leinster.
The ever-improving Des Clohessy, a try-scorer in both the Moroccan and Edinburgh games, has been straining at the leash and seems likely to start. Declan Kidney and the Munster think-tank might also gamble on the dynamism of Frank Sheahan, although this would mean sacrificing the accurate throwing of Mark McDermott.
A more likely choice at blindside flanker is David Wallace, hattrick try scorer in his belated seasonal start against the Leinster A side, rather than David Corkery, also a scorer on his debut as a sub last Friday.
There may also be a reshuffle of the backs, with Ronan O'Gara coming in and Killian Keane reverting to centre. It will mean a comparatively unproven and remodelled outfit, especially up front.
Nevertheless, with Mick Galwey, Peter Clohessy and Anthony Foley yet to fire on all cylinders, the Munster pack need and will probably benefit from an infusion of youthful enthusiasm.
One suspects it will need a fairly big and imposing performance from the Munster pack for them to negate the perceived superiority of the Ulster backs and thereby keep both them and the irrepressible Andy Ward on the back foot. Certainly, Ulster have played with much greater continuity, keeping the ball alive in the tackle for a variety of support runners, than a comparatively plodding Munster, heretofore.
Williams is bracing his team for a fired-up Munster onslaught from the start, "buck daft as we say up here." And he definitely said buck.
The Ulster coach also expects Munster to be "more heated" than Ulster's previous opponents. "The strength of Irish rugby is currently situated in the Munster clubs. They've got some really good, hard rugged forwards. But we're prepared for that. At least, I hope we are."
Yet it didn't transpire last year, when Munster began like sedated snails and never got into the match, and nor has it happened in Munster's winless 20-year run at Ravenhill. On their last 10 visits since 1977, the summit of Munster's achievements was just one draw.
No less than the Leinster-Connacht fixture of a week ago, this one, too, tends to veer toward the home side, the last away win being Ulster's 12-11 success of 1992. With Ravenhill likely to reverberate as of yore for a revitalised home side, the old ground should be even more partisan than ever for its first floodlit interprovincial.
Yet, as the results of this fixture also highlight, there's usually never more than a score between them, which makes the 5/6 bet on Munster with an eight-point handicap the most enticing wager.
ULSTER: S Mason; J Davis, J Bell, M McCall (capt), J Cunningham; D Humphreys, A Matchett; J Fitzpatrick, A Clarke, G Leslie, M Rea, G Longwell, D Macartney, T McWhirter, A Ward. Replacements - A Park, B Cunningham, S Bell, S Duncan, S McKinty, R Irwin, R Weir.
MUNSTER (possible): D Crotty; J Kelly, K keane, M Lynch, A Horgan; R O'Gara, B O'Meara; D Clohessy, F Sheahan, P Clohessy, M Galwey (capt), S Leahy, D Wallace, A Foley, E Halvey. Replacements - B Roche, B Walsh, T Tierney, M McDermott, J Hayes, I Murray, D Corkery.
Referee: A Lewis (Leinster).
