LEINSTER SFC KILDARE v LAOIS:SEÁN MORAN talks to the former Kildare and Offaly boss Pádraig Nolan, who believes the province's football fortunes are cyclical

THE STATISTICS of Leinster football’s decline are well known – no All-Ireland in 10 years, no finalist in eight, and the longest wait of all the provinces since the last elite under-age championship title.

This weekend, champions Dublin play Westmeath for the right to a final place as they chase a fifth successive provincial title but without having progressed to an All-Ireland Sunday in 14 years.

Pádraig Nolan has a broad knowledge of football in the province, having managed both Kildare (his own county) and Offaly. He believes the lack of success in Leinster is temporary.

“I think it’s just cyclical. How long it will take I don’t know. There’s been no Leinster win at under-21 level for six years, even if Laois and Kildare have recently been to finals and you have to go back the same amount of time to the last minor title.

“It’s the same story at schools’ level, with nothing since St Pat’s in Navan came through and any lads from those teams are either playing with Meath or just not coming through at this stage. People forget that Dublin have always been the major force in Leinster and they’re down at the moment.

“It’s nearly as long as it’s ever been since they won an All-Ireland. Counties like Meath and Offaly have emerged from time to time, but, if Dublin are weak, generally Leinster is weak.

“Competition obviously helps, but the reason Dublin have won four Leinsters and no All-Irelands in the past few years is they aren’t good enough. Anyway, look at Kerry; Cork don’t always provide them with competition but they still win All-Irelands.”

Tomorrow, in Tullamore, the other semi-final sees the clash of two of Dublin’s closest competitors this decade – Laois and Kildare.

There are similarities between the counties. Both were led to long-awaited Leinster titles by Mick O’Dwyer in the past 11 years and have lost All-Ireland under-21 finals recently, but this season Kildare have impressed as the team most likely to catch Dublin.

Under the management of Armagh’s All-Ireland winning captain Kieran McGeeney the county has gradually developed a game plan and durability that nearly landed promotion to next season’s Division One and reached a first All-Ireland quarter-final last year.

After a number of years in the doldrums – it’s now six years since Nolan led the county to its most recent Leinster final – the county has gradually reasserted its presence.

“Kildare are on the rise again,” says Nolan. “The ship has been steadied and where they are exactly the next few weeks will tell but last year they reached an under-21 All-Ireland final and this year the minors have won the first couple of rounds in Leinster for the first time in a few years. The under-age structure has improved a lot this decade.

“Brian Murphy (originally from Cork and who scored the decisive goal when Kildare beat Meath in 1998 to claim a first Leinster title in 42 years) has done huge work over the past 10 years and has taken charge of the minors this season.

“At schools’ level, Patrician Newbridge won the Leinster under-16 and there were about 10 lads on the St Mary’s Edenderry team that won the Leinster colleges. That’s a barometer.”

Work at developmental level benefits hugely from the raised profile of senior success. It was with this in mind the Kildare County Board took a chance on an inexperienced manager, banking on McGeeney’s inspirational status as a player.

A year ago it didn’t appear to be a paying gamble, as the new Kildare manager found himself having to explain how a season that had already seen the county relegated from Division One had managed to deteriorate into providing Wicklow – for added piquancy now managed by Mick O’Dwyer – with a first Croke Park championship win in history.

Somehow recovery was sufficiently realised for the team to negotiate the qualifiers and reach the last eight of the championship. Nolan has been impressed with his successor’s ability to turn around what had looked like a disaster.

“I definitely think that McGeeney has been very, very good since losing last year to Wicklow. How he’s managed the whole set-up has been a credit to him. If the players aren’t there there’s not much any manager can do but he has a few from the tail-end of the Micko era as well as from last year’s under-21s.

“Kildare players are also very willing to go the extra mile and that’s in keeping with McGeeney’s work ethic. Since losing to Wicklow in 2008, they’ve only lost two competitive matches – to Cork and Armagh.

The Cork defeat was still a positive as reaching an All-Ireland quarter-final was an achievement after losing in Leinster and Armagh was the only defeat they suffered in the league. There’s a lot of confidence and belief there.”

He believes his former team will do enough to reach next month’s final after tomorrow’s derby against Laois.

“I’ve heard it said that Kildare won’t handle being favourites that well but they’re playing well as a team and have a big work ethic, two or three guys scoring, not just John Doyle, and Dermot Earley playing really well at midfield.

“They also play to a system and are confident in that system. They’ll be hard to beat whoever they play.”