Leinster need to convert more chances

Cardiff Blues v Leinster Lions, Arms ParkEuropean Cup: It might seem a little melodramatic to describe tonight's game in the principality as a make-or-break one for Leinster in Pool Three of the Heineken European Cup. After all there will be four games remaining following tonight's clash.

However, when the draw for the tournament was announced this was one game that Leinster would have privately targeted as a reasonable opportunity to snatch an away win. For public consumption there are the usual platitudes tossed like garlands between the combatants.

Cardiff, though, don't inspire the fear they once commanded. They have enjoyed a topsy-turvy season in the Celtic League as befits a side who labour under the label of mercurial.

In their last league game, the Welsh side travelled to Musgrave Park and were ripped asunder by Munster, yet a week later, in their opening European Cup match, they made the journey to Sale and were extremely unfortunate to lose 24-22 to Sale Sharks.

Tonight they'll want to avoid making a little bit of European history. Having lost their last eight games in the tournament, a defeat tonight would see them tie the worst ever run since the inception of the competition.

Ensconced in their backyard they will provide a hugely physical challenge, particularly up front. In Craig Quinnell and Dan Baugh - the Canadian flanker is expected to pass a late fitness test - they have players who relish confrontation, if prone to collecting cards in the process.

Cardiff have a good scrum but their lineout is fallible, not least because hoisting 20-stone Quinnell is not a consistent option. The tendency is therefore to throw on Andy Moore and number eight Nathan Thomas, placing great pressure on hooker Gareth Williams.

Leinster demonstrated against Biarritz that they excel on the opposition throw-in, with Malcolm O'Kelly especially light-fingered, and will no doubt contest the majority of lineouts. The Irish province also confirmed against the French side that their scrum can be a potent weapon.

Cardiff rely heavily on former rugby league star Iestyn Harris for inspiration and place-kicking acumen. Harris is a strong runner with excellent vision but is prone to giving long looping passes that are somewhat telegraphed.

Matt Allen and Jamie Robinson are hard-running centres, while Tom Shanklin - also expected to recover; his ailment a dead leg - is a centre playing on the wing. Fleet footed fullback Rhys Williams will provide the flair.

It may appear churlish to be critical of Leinster's performance given a 32-6 win over Biarritz but the French side contributed handsomely to their own downfall. In mitigation the Irish province put them under huge pressure on several occasions. Their approach work was exemplary, even when failing to deliver points.

Therein lies the nub for Leinster: they must convert more chances than they are taking at present. The priorities for coach Gary Ella will be that the pack manages the basic lineout and scrum duties, discharging them authoritatively, thereby creating quick ball to unleash the backs.

Ella has changed many of the patterns from the old regime and has also allowed greater input from the players. The coach establishes the parameters, the players must interpret and adapt them to match situations. It's the classic, "playing what's in front of you" philosophy.

This relies on good habits, good decision making and the ability to be precise under pressure.

Leinster will look to release Victor Costello and Eric Miller, with Keith Gleeson providing the continuity.

Ben Gissing may also carry ball while Peter Coyle could take time out from more mundane duties to make a few hard yards.

Christian Warner is once again a key performer, not just as the conduit to releasing the backs but also ensuring that his pack is going forward. There is no point in shuffling on static ball.

Watching Leinster clearing the lines in defensive situations is not for the faint-hearted and the constant shuffling of bodies into the role of pivot for clearing kicks is a little fraught.

Tonight Leinster must compete physically up front, retain discipline and look to unleash a talented three-quarter line.

Last time the teams met at this venue, a Celtic League match earlier in the season, Cardiff won 22-3; Leinster prop John Lyne broke his leg and flanker Aidan McCullen his arm. It's time to exorcise those memories.

CARDIFF: R Williams; T Shanklin/N Walne, J Robinson, M Allen, C Morgan; I Harris, R Powell; J Yapp, G Williams, D Crompton; C Quinnell, A Moore; D Baugh/J Brownrigg, N Thomas, M Williams (capt).

LEINSTER: G Dempsey; J McWeeney, B O'Driscoll, S Horgan, G D'Arcy; C Warner, B O'Meara; R Corrigan (capt), S Byrne, P Coyle; B Gissing, M O'Kelly; E Miller, V Costello, K Gleeson.

Referee: J Jutge (France).

Formguide: Cardiff - lost 24-22 to Sale (a). Leinster - beat Biarritz 32-6 (h).

Leading points scorers: Cardiff - Iestyn Harris 14. Leinster - Brian O'Meara 12.

Leading try scorers: Cardiff - Tom Shanklin, Nathan Thomas 1 each; Leinster - Shane Horgan 2.

Verdict: Leinster.