Leinster can roll with the punches to win

RUGBY HEINEKEN CUP QUARTER FINAL:ON A seismic weekend for European rugby, this is arguably the pick of the Heineken Cup quarter-finals: the best of the celts, and the reigning European champions, against the best team in France over the last three years. The RDS is liable to shudder alright.

If it’s true to say that Clermont are possibly the away quarter-finalists all the home sides would have preferred to avoid, then likewise Leinster are the home side everybody else would probably have wanted to skip at this juncture too. Michael Cheika’s team have developed a resilience where once there was brittleness, as evidenced by the way they have earned home advantage in the last eight and go into this tie unbeaten in 10 games after last week’s excellent win in Thomond Park.

Furthermore, as expected, Shane Horgan, Brian O’Driscoll and Kevin McLaughlin all return from injury to the starting line-up at the expense of Girvan Dempsey, Fergus McFadden and Devin Toner, with Nathan Hines reverting to secondrow in an otherwise unchanged side. This means Stanley Wright and CJ van der Linde start, with Cian Healy on the bench, where Cheika has opted for the experience of Malcolm O’Kelly and Dempsey over the unlucky Toner and McFadden.

Vern Cotter, too, has strengthened his hand in making five changes from the team that lost 19-10 to Stade Francais last Saturday, though one of those is enforced as leading try-scorer Napolioni Nalaga has been ruled out. Aurelien Rougerie reverts to right-wing in the Fijian flyer’s absence, with Reggie Corrigan’s mate Marius Joubert forming a new midfield partnership with Gonzalo Canale. This is something of a gamble, as Joubert has only played about three games in the last 18 months due to groin operations.

Their prolific Australian Brock James is restored at outhalf, while up front Jamie Cudmore and Thibaud Privat return in the secondrow, which means French starting lock Julien Pierre is on the bench. Still, it’s evidence of Clermont’s strength that Benoit Baby cannot even earn a place on the bench.

Only so much can be read into an away defeat in the Top 14, although Clermont looked relatively one-dimensional last week with their fairly direct approach and appear to have lost their form and their cutting edge out wide in their last three games following the Six Nations, prior to which they were in excellent form.

Rewind to their 40-30 destruction of Leicester (where the visitors were flattered by a late collapse) and the thumping of the Ospreys at home and that was Clermont at their sensational best. Morgan Parra was turned over three times in contact close-in last week, but that probably means he won’t be this week. There are few scrumhalves more adept at getting the heavy artillery motoring, be it the ever-willing Elvis Vermeulen, Thomas Domingo, Mario Ledesma and co to run hard and direct over the gain line, or either offloading or recycling quickly for James to stretch the opposition and bring their wide men into play. On their day, only Toulouse can rival them in France.

There remains the nagging suspicion that they don’t always travel well, witness a return of just six wins from 23 away games in Europe. But the memory of their performance in Thomond Park last season, when they took the game to Munster for long stretches, remains vivid. With 3,000 travelling supporters, and with such an experienced clutch of players and a burning desire to atone for so many near misses, the expectation must be that they will turn up with their A game as well as their A team.

It’s no wonder that Cheika has sought to meet such physical power head-on. Between their starting line-up and the bench, Leinster would appear to have the options to compete in the set-pieces which, if so, probably means their defence will be the key.

Whoever draws the lines in the sand along the gain line, all the more so close in, will go a long way toward securing a place in the semi-finals away to either Toulouse or Stade Francais in three weeks’ time. McLaughlin’s physicality, with Hines bulking up the secondrow, amid the continuing good form of Jamie Heaslip and Shane Jennings is therefore encouraging.

Similarly, Eoin Reddan’s superb performance last week suggests he could be a match for the chirpy Parra. If there is a caveat, it is perhaps a recurring failure to take their chances last weekend and Jonathan Sexton’s place-kicking. But despite landing only 12 from his last 28 kicks since his promotion to the Irish team, Sexton again landed the pressure kicks last week to steer Leinster over the winning line.

The sheer presence of O’Driscoll is a mighty boon, all the more so against a rusty Joubert, and while Horgan hasn’t played since February 20th, he had to play once he returned to training last Monday. His physicality and experience ought to more than compensate for his relatively rustiness, and then there’s the rejuvenation of Rob Kearney.

All in all, Leinster look in good nick. It’s a testimony to Cheika, the coaching ticket and the team’s leadership, that it will be a surprise if everyone doesn’t keep their foot on the pedal. It may be close, they’ll almost certainly have to roll with the punches at times, but they have the mental, as well as the physical, strength over 80 minutes to get there in the end.

Leinster v Clermont Auvergne

Venue: RDS Kick-off: 8.0pm On TV: Sky Sports 1

Previous meetings: (2002-03) Clermont 20, Leinster 23; Leinster 12, Clermont 9.

Results so far:Leinster: 9-12 v London Irish (h); 36-13 v Brive (a); 32-7 v Scarlets (a); 39-7 v Scarlets (h); 27-10 v Brive (h); 11-11 v London Irish (a). Clermont: 36-18 v Viadana (h); 24-25 v Ospreys (a); 40-30 v Leicester (h); 15-20 v Leicester (a); 27-7 v Ospreys (h); 59-20 v Viadana (a).

Leading try scorers: Leinster: Gordon D'Arcy 4, Rob Kearney 3. Clermont: Napolioni Nalaga 5.

Leading points scorers: Leinster:Jonathan Sexton 41. Clermont: Brock James 65.

Betting(Paddy Powers); 1/2 Leinster, 20/1 Draw, 13/8 Clermont. Handicap odds: 10/11 Leinster (-5 pts), 22/1 Draw, 10/11 (Clermont +5pts).

Forecast: Leinster to win.